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Monday, 12 April 2004
The Big Picture (Introduction)
Dr John Bruni
This will outline the main themes that will be covered for the duration of
Symposium.
Sources and Aspects of Asymmetric Warfare
Lieutenant-Colonel David Kilcullen
This presentation examines numerous definitions of Asymmetric Warfare and concludes
that a key element in this form of warfare is the use of the enemy's own cultural
prejudices and perceptions against them. Asymmetric warfare defeats an enemy by
attacking unexpected targets using unconventional means, so that the enemy's own
reaction to the attack causes significantly more damage than the attack itself.
The presentation examines the origins and sources of asymmetric warfare at the
systemic level in terms of globalisation and the backlash to it. It argues that
globalisation has led to inequities and grievances in the international system
which have generated a backlash from both within and outside dominant ‘Western'
nations such as the US . Enemies of globalisation have used globalisation's own
tools - the internet, satellite communications, the free flow of people and capital
across national borders – as a means to attack globalised nations and the globalisation
process itself. The presentation describes the diverse and lethal threat environment
that emerges from this interaction between globalisation and the backlash to it,
and which in turn gives rise to asymmetries at the tactical level. The presentation
then uses recent real-world examples to highlight key elements of asymmetric warfare
at the grand-strategic, military-strategic, operational and tactical levels of
conflict. These examples are drawn from current and ongoing conflicts and are
relevant to the UAE's security situation.
Asymmetric Confrontation in the Middle
East – from Perceptions of Weakness to Alternative Futures
Dr John Bruni
Since the fall of communism, international relations specialists have often
argued that we live in a unipolar world. The last remaining superpower, the United
States , has built up a powerful global network of friends and allies. This is
illustrated by the fact that the United States maintains a globally deployed military
presence of some 350,000 troops of which approximately 250,000 are presently engaged
in a number of tasks ranging from peacekeeping, counter-insurgency to counter-terrorism.
In the Middle East , America actively supports the state of Israel . When Washington
is critical of the manner in which Tel Aviv chooses to exercise its regional power
over the Occupied Territories , this criticism is never perceived by the Arab/Islamic
world as a serious restraint on Israeli actions.
This paper seeks to examine the broad contemporary asymmetric power disparities
between the Middle East and the rest of the world. It will analyse, from a Western
perspective, the background and development of two of the region's ongoing major
asymmetric conflicts in the Middle East today – Palestine and Iraq – and asks
what led to these conflicts and why are they so inimical to peaceful resolution.
Furthermore, the paper will explore the idea of pan-Arabism, what led to the concept's
downfall over time and why there has not been a revivalist form of pan-Arabism
created to fuse the Arab states into a force for good on the international stage.
The paper will hypothesise that the only way forward for peace in the Middle East
is for the region to create its own unified multilateral framework to seriously
deal with its own crises. To not wait for the international community to initiate
complex and unworkable diplomatic initiatives that usually favour and enhance
US and Israeli geostrategic interests.
Asymmetric Confrontation Moscow & Washington
: Collision Course in the Caucasus & Central Asia?
Dr Felix Patrikeeff
Since the breakdown of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has had to
renegotiate its relations with the states in the Caucasus and Central Asian regions;
strategically significant parts of its former empire, and areas of rivalry between
the Russian and British Empires in the 19 th century. The increased interest that
the United States has shown in these formerly solely Russian spheres of influence
(notably with the deployment of troops and grant ing of aid packages as a result
of America's engagement in a War on Terror) has provided some grounds for a new
form of friction to emerge, this time between the US and Putin's Russia.
The paper examines the potential for international crisis to occur in these
regions, and whether such an eventuality is the inevitable result of the competition
between Moscow and Washington over what are now crucial areas of geostrategy for
both. In so doing, the paper concentrates especially on the continuing and potentially
open-ended nature of an American military presence -- and its economic influence
-- on the borders of the Russian Federation .
Apocalyptic Terrorists as “Liminal Entities”
and the New World Order
Dr Arthur
Saniotis
In recent years suicide bombings in the United States , Saudi Arabia , Morocco
, Turkey and Indonesia underscore the shift in the apocalyptic terrorists' mindset
in conducting acts of terror. Such terrorist groups, many derived from religious
extremist organisations, are outside the mainstream of their respective societies.
Armed only with the believe in their god as their ultimate motivator and a belief
in the righteousness of their cause, religious terrorists, in order to survive
the worst meted out to them by their respective governments, will seek to undermine
their persecutors by attacking the state and those that are seen to support it
(including the state's external allies). They will seek to generate a form of
attack so shocking and so unexpected that it forces their perceived persecutors
to take stock of their actions.
This presentation unpacks the notion of Islamic terrorism and how Islamic-based
terrorists see themselves in fighting their war against the West and elsewhere
– inhabiting a realm between the temporal and the spiritual. This presentation
will focus on the ‘liminal' status of Islamic terrorists and why this forms the
basis of so much fear in the West as well as being a source of strength to the
terrorists themselves.
Proliferation of WMD in East & East Asia
&Implications for the Gulf
Professor Carl Thayer
This paper is divided into six parts. Part 1 provides an overview of what is
meant by WMD proliferation. It discusses the difference between weapons of mass
destruction and mass casualty weapons, and the difference between vertical and
horizontal proliferation; it defines the geographic scope of the East Asia region;
and reviews the three main international treaties designed to prevent the proliferation
of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. This section concludes by noting
that the international treaty regime was designed to stop state actors from engaging
in proliferation but new evidence has revealed the extent of proliferation activities
by non-state actors. Part 2 discusses patterns of WMD proliferation in East Asia
. It notes that recently China and Russia have taken steps to curb proliferation
but nonetheless the proliferation activities by ‘entities' (companies) continues.
North Korea represents a contrasting case where the state itself is engaged in
both horizontal and vertical clandestine proliferation activities. The relationship
between Pakistan and North Korea is provided as an example where technology has
been exchanged for missiles. Part 3 discusses the ‘A. Q. Khan black market' international
network that promoted proliferation of WMD as a money-making venture. Part 4 reviews
both state and non-state sponsored proliferation activities between East Asia
and the Gulf and Middle East . This section highlights the role of private Russian
entities, the Khan black market network and North Korea in ballistic missile and
nuclear weapons technology proliferation. Part 5 discusses the linkages between
WMD, terrorism, and what is termed ‘the second nuclear age'. The first nuclear
age was a phenomenon of the Cold War and was relatively stable. The essential
features of the second nuclear age are potentially highly destabilizing as the
number of nuclear weapons states increases and chemical, biological and radiological
weapons become more easy to acquire. Part 6, discusses the way ahead. It notes
several positive recent developments to curb proliferation, such as international
pressures on North Korea , Iran and Libya . The paper concludes by tabling for
discussion a seven-point agenda to curb proliferation offered by U.S. President
George Bush. Hardcore activists have broken away to pursue their own agendas.
JI remnants, nonetheless, retain the potential to disrupt political stability
in Indonesia .
Defeating and Exploiting Asymmetric Warfare
Lieutenant-Colonel David Kilcullen
This presentation is based upon recent operational experience by a range of
countries in confronting asymmetric threats, and builds on the detailed analysis
provided in the first presentation. It discusses the dynamic from which asymmetric
threats emerge, starting with a legitimate grievance and spiralling through a
series of escalating stages to a major asymmetric warfare campaign.
The presentation then puts forward a model for an integrated counter-asymmetric
campaign that deals with the phenomenon of asymmetric warfare as a whole, rather
than simply focussing on asymmetric or unconventional tactics. This model is not
presented as ‘the' solution to asymmetric warfare, but as a basic framework for
considering how an effective response, tailored for an individual situation, might
be put together. The presentation concludes with a detailed discussion of a hypothetical
exercise addressing key asymmetric points of attack against the UAE, a scenario
showing how such attacks might develop, and an example of an integrated counter-asymmetric
response that would be tailored to the UAE's specific circumstances.
Tuesday, 13 April 2004
Terrorism & International Law (or
similar title TBC)
UAE University nominated speaker
TBA
Origins of the Globalisation of Terrorism
Mr Clive Williams MG
Clive Williams looks at the difficulty of achieving an agreed definition of
terrorism. Groups or individuals conduct most terrorist acts but states too can
be guilty of acts or campaigns of terrorism. Another category to consider is state
sponsored terrorism. The paper examines the origins of terrorism from the early
anarchists onwards, and the steps by which this form of political violence developed.
1968 was an important watershed year, but the end of the war in Afghanistan in
1988 signalled the real start to the spread of Muslim extremist terrorism that
the world faces today.
The paper does not consider localized separatist conflicts like the ones in
Chechnya or Palestine but acknowledges their significance as subsets to global
terror. The paper shows how terrorism has became a truly international phenomenon
and a major threat to some modern nation-states. In particular, the paper examines
the growth of "modern" global terrorism, and the influence of Al Qaeda
on Islamic extremism.
The Alienation of the Individual as a Prime
Motivator for Terrorist Action
Mr David Olney
Explores the role political/social/economic disenfranchisement has in making
people give their lives for a cause, especially the cause of terrorism. Analyses
whether terrorist groups comprised simply of irrational fanatics, or whether theirs
is a cause of desperation and their actions the only logical solution to their
plight.
Social Psychological Perspectives on Surveillance
& Security: An Australian Perspective
Professor Mike Innes
Issues of national security and warfare are most often realised as lying within
the discipline of political science. The topics are, however, central to concerns
of other disciplines in the social sciences, in particular social psychology.
This paper will outline the contribution of social psychology to an understanding
of the forces, which generate war, national identity and the generation of terrorism.
The first part of the paper will outline the separate and combined roles of the
social setting and the personal disposition in determining a social action.
The second part will be concerned with how that analysis can inform an understanding
of national identities and how these can be recruited as motivational instruments
for aggressive and peaceful actions. Finally, the paper will address how social
links and relationships can act to restrain and expand actions in positive and
negative interdependence regardless of the intentions and values of the individuals
in those relationships.
Political Terrorism in Southeast
Asia
Professor Carl A. Thayer
This paper is divided into four parts. Part 1 provides an introduction to political
terrorism in Southeast Asia . It distinguishes ‘old terrorism' (domestic insurgency,
regional separatism and ethnic conflict) from ‘new terrorism' (internationally
networked mass casualty terrorism). The Bali bombings of October 2002 suddenly
raised the issue of new terrorism to the top of the region's security agenda.
International terrorist experts and regional security specialists put al Qaeda
at the centre of their analysis. But leading government officials in four regional
states initially dismissed such linkages. Why this was so is discussed in part
three. Part 2 of the paper discusses the problem of defining terrorism in international
law. It notes that the United Nations (UN) and the Organisation of Islamic Conference
cannot agree on a definition. Various agencies of the United States government
have their own separate definitions. The paper proceeds by focusing on those groups
that have been defined as belonging to or associated with the Taliban, Osama bin
Laden and the al Qaeda organization by the UN. Part four is the heart of the paper.
It discusses political terrorism in Southeast Asia by focusing on three UN-proscribed
groups: Al Qaeda, the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines , and Jemaah Islamiyah
(JI), a regional terrorist organization. The paper is critical of analysts who
discuss political terrorism in Southeast Asia primarily through the ‘al Qaeda-centric
paradigm'. The paper argues that groups like the ASG are autonomous actors who
pursue their own agendas quite separately from al Qaeda. The case of JI is more
complex.
JI has roots deep within Indonesian society and it is internationally networked
with al Qaeda. JI also developed a regional network which marked a new development
in political terrorism in Southeast Asia . The paper argues that JI too is an
autonomous actor with its own agenda. Part 4 offers a net assessment of political
terrorism in Southeast Asia . It notes that internationally the al Qaeda network
has been broken up and disrupted as a result of the United States-led attack on
the Taliban regime. Al Qaeda is not ‘the network of networks' that some international
terrorist experts proclaim. As a result of counter-terrorism action by the Malaysian,
Singaporean and Indonesian governments, JI has been badly disrupted as well. The
JI regional network centred in Malaysia has been eliminated but linkages still
exist between JI operatives in Indonesia and the Philippines . JI is in disarray
and there is evidence of internal factionalism.
Political Terrorism in the Arab world
and implications for the Gulf
ECSSR
nominated speaker tbc
TBA
The War on Terrorism 2004, Progress
Toward a Decisive Conclusion or a Battle
Never-ending?
Mr Clive Williams MG
The Bush Administration's choice of the term "war on terror" was
unwise because it gave the impression of a limited duration conflict and a decisive
outcome. Neither is in prospect. Modern Muslim extremist terrorists are fighting
for the longer term - possibly hundreds of years if necessary. Western governments
tend not to develop strategies that carry them far beyond the next election -
except in terms of military acquisitions because of the long lead-times needed.
Al Qaeda and its affiliates are not dependent on large bureaucracies or formal
military structures. They can therefore change and evolve quickly. Al Qaeda can
also mount hard-hitting attacks because it is not afraid of death or sacrificing
its fighters. Some states are using the war on terror as a way of gaining concessions
from the US or to obscure human rights abuses against separatist elements in their
own populations.
The paper addresses the successes, failures and misjudgements made in the prosecution
of the war - and whether the international community has any grounds for optimism.
United Arab Emirates > Topics
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The University of Adelaide
