Adaptive responses for sustainable environments

The program includes a range of studies that are evaluating the impacts of climate change (past, present and future) on terrestrial and marine plants and animals. Information from these studies aims to inform policy development for the conservation and management of extant populations. 

Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications

This multi-disciplinary study characterises a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health and identifies the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It provides critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as for conservation efforts within Australia. It also uses novel means to track the timing and routes of human prehistoric movements throughout the area.

Project team
Alan Cooper; Ken P Aplin; Stephen C Donnellan

Funding
ARC Discovery

Planning for a transformed future: Modelling synergistic climate change and land use impacts on biodiversity

Climate change poses a dire threat to Australia's biodiversity and natural resources due to its all-encompassing reach and the speed at which human-driven changes are taking place in already heavily modified systems. This project models the synergistic impacts of anthropogenic threats, thereby providing new knowledge and innovative solutions for protecting unique ecosystems facing severe environmental challenges this century. The validation of these new methods, which aim to capture ecological responses to global change, represents a major and timely addition to the national research capability on climate change adaptation.

Project team
Barry Brook, Miguel B Araujo; Damien A Fordham; Jeff N Foulkes

Funding
ARC Linkage

Reconstructing Past Population Dynamics to Understand Human and Climatic Impacts in Prehistory

 More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research is identifying the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the past 46 millennia. It effectively draws together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exploitation and habitat alteration by ancient people, and the influence of dramatic climatic shifts on the Australian biota. 

The project combines multiple lines of evidence to unravel the relationship between fauna, people and climate in Australia during the late Quaternary. It focuses on reconstructing the dynamic interaction between postulated drivers of change (humans, dingoes and climate), and the long-term response of macropods (prey), thylacines and devils (predators). Data from fossils, spores, ancient DNA, archaeological records of human occupation and the ecology of modern species will be integrated using Bayesian statistics, and population, habitat and bioclimatic simulation modelling. This will provide the key knowledge required to anticipate biotic responses to future climate change and alternative land uses, and guide proactive management responses.

Project team
Barry Brook, Jeremy Austin (University of Adelaide), Chris Johnson (James Cook University)

Funding
ARC Discovery

Evolution of the Unique Fauna of the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs: The Impact of Aridification and Climate Change

The unique invertebrate communities of the Great Artesian Basin mound springs provide an ideal system to examine the impact of historic aridification and climate change on Australia’s freshwater fauna. Using sequence data from multiple genes this project will develop robust phylogenies and investigate recent lineage divergence for two groups of aquatic crustaceans endemic to the springs. It will test hypotheses associated with climate history in Australia, origins of the endemic fauna and evolutionary radiations within the springs.

By examining the impact of climate history the project will assess the possible consequences of spring extinctions and future climate change on these unique communities.

Project team
Nick Murphy, Andy Austin (University of Adelaide), MA Adam (South Australian Museum)

Funding
ARC Discovery

Selected publications
Gotch TB, Adams M, Murphy NP, Austin AD. 2008. A molecular systematic overview of wolf spiders associated with Great Artesian Basin Springs in South Australia: Evolutionary origins and an assessment of metapopulation structure in two species. Invertebrate Systematics.  (in press).   

Forecasting Change in Subtidal Habitats: Connecting Local Pollution with Global Climate in Temperate Australia

Key to research on the biological impacts of climate change is the direct and indirect effects of carbon dioxide on marine habitats, the potential combined impacts of additional regional and local pollutants, and the development of state and federal policy to cope with appropriate mitigation.

The current narrow focus of management on local and contemporary environmental conditions (e.g. water quality) has indeterminate outcomes in the face of climate change. This research seeks to forecast marine habitats under realistic scenarios of climate change and continuing local population growth and activity. This information provides managers with information needed to understand the consequences of current policy and debates about its improvement.

Project team
Sean Connell, Bayden Russell, Carlos Gurgel (University of Adelaide)

Funding
ARC Linkage, State Herbarium of South Australia, Department for Environment and Heritage, South Australian Abalone Association

Selected publications
Connell SD, Gillanders BM. (Eds). 2007. Marine Ecology. Oxford University Press, Melbourne.

Harley CDG, Connell SD. Shift of abiotic parameters. In: Wahl M (Ed.) Hard Bottom Communities. Springer-Verlag.  (in press).

Developing Biogeographic Know-how: Improving Species Divergence and Dispersal Estimations to Examine Geological and Climatic Evolutionary Drivers

Using biogeographic and phylogeographic analyses of dispersal and divergence of divergent plant lineages (from conifers to flowering plants) in the Australasian region, this project aims to examine whether pulses in dispersal or speciation in this region are associated with major historical, geological or climatic fluctuations.

The project aims to combine evidence from fossils, phylogeny and phylogeography from the region in a statistical and analytical interpretation framework, to examine whether climatic changes in the past can be considered as major drivers of speciation or migration for plants.

Project team
Andrew Lowe (University of Adelaide), Mike Pole (University of Queensland), Maurizio Rossetto Darren Crayn, (Sydney Botanic Gardens), David Lambert (Massey University, NZ), Pete Hollingsworth (Royal Botanic Gardens, Edinburgh, UK)

Funding
ARC Discovery

Using Ancient DNA to Investigate the Environmental Impacts of Climate Change and Humans through Time

Ancient DNA studies have provided a powerful new means to record the impact of past environmental changes on animal and plant populations. Recent studies have revealed the dramatic impacts of climate change over the past 100 kyr, including localised extinctions, migrations, replacements and major genetic bottlenecks. These events are unobservable from studies of modern populations. This project examines the relative impacts of climate change and human arrival on populations of large vertebrates in the Americas, New Zealand, Australia and Africa over the past 50 kyr. This key period includes the severe climate changes associated with the last glacial maximum, the end-Pleistocene mass extinctions and the widespread dispersal of humans.

This project is providing important information about how climate change and human impact have effected our environment over the past 50 kyr, removing many of the large mammals and altering the landscape. It is critical that the background to our current environment is properly understood if we are to predict the effects of on-going changes such as global warming. The research concentrates on the effects of climate change on large mammals in North and South America, New Zealand, Australia and Africa over this time period, and examines the additional impact of humans in each location.

Project team
Alan Cooper, Jessica Metcalf (University of Adelaide), Tim Flannery (Macquarie University)

Funding
ARC Discovery

The Role of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Fostering Hyperdiversity in Australian Conifer Palaeofloras

About 40-20 million years ago south-eastern Australia contained a remarkable conifer species diversity. Most conifer fossils from the region are assigned to living genera, some now in the same region, but most from elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. We aim to understand whether the prevailing high atmospheric CO2 concentrations contributed to conifer dominance. A combined approach, exploiting our world-class living conifer collection and extensive archive of conifer fossils, creates a unique opportunity to examine these questions arising from a fascinating period of Australia's history. This will also demonstrate significant implications of current environmental change on land plants.

Human intervention into atmospheric processes appears to have triggered an excursion in atmospheric CO2 to levels unknown for millennia. Our ability to predict the environmental implications of such a change will play a major role in ameliorating the social and financial impact upon Australia. This project examines the ecology and function of forests that grew under CO2 levels considerably higher than present and will provide an invaluable insight into how future biological systems will function.

Project team
Bob Hill (University of Adelaide), Tim Brodribb, Greg Jordan (University of Tasmania)

Funding
ARC Discovery

Evolutionary Genetics of Bovid Genomes over
60 000 Years

Ancient DNA research provides a powerful new means to study evolution by recording genetic change in real time. This approach has huge potential to answer long-standing questions about the way microevolutionary change occurs in populations in response to selection from humans or the environment. In collaboration with leading US cattle genetics researchers the latest genomics technology is being used to analyse ancient bovid populations to record changes in diversity across the genome through time, and examine the relative roles of mutation, selection and genetic drift. Cattle pedigrees are also being used to measure within-family evolutionary rates to determine how the molecular clock can be used to date recent events e.g. human evolution.

Project team
Alan Cooper, Chen Kefei (University of Adelaide), J Taylor (University of Missouri)

Funding
ARC Discovery

Selected publications
Shapiro B, Drummond AJ, Rambaut A, Wilson MC, Matheus PE, Sher AV, Pybus OG, Gilbert MTP, Barnes I, Binladen J, Willerslev E, Hansen AJ, Baryshnikov GF, Burns JA, Davydov S, Driver JC, Froese DG, Harington CR, Keddie G, Kosintsev P, Kunz ML, Martin LD, Stephenson RO, Storer J, Tedford R, Zimov S, and Cooper A. 2004. Rise and fall of the Beringian steppe bison. Science 306:1561-1565.

Conservation Genetics and Socio-ecology of Marsupials in Fragmented Populations of South-Eastern South Australia: Towards a Regional Biodiversity Management Plan

In south-eastern South Australia and western Victoria native forests have been severely fragmented, leading to a series of isolated forest patches surrounded by either agricultural land or pine plantations. Our project aims to investigate how this fragmentation has impacted population processes in five key marsupial species using a powerful combination of fine-scale genetic and ecological analyses. The outcome will be comparative data on the population dynamics and ecology of each species, and the degree of connectivity among patches and habitat characteristics that influence this. These data are crucial for the development of appropriate management and landscape restoration strategies for biodiversity conservation.

Project team
Dr SM Carthew; Dr M Lancaster; Mr N Fuller (University of Adelaide);  Dr SJ Cooper (SA Museum); Dr AC Taylor (Monash University)

Funding
ARC Linkage