PKfKB@W!!refs.MYD \??,Brook, B. W. Lim, L. Harden, R. Frankham, R.1997XHow secure is the Lord Howe Island Woodhen? A population viability analysis using VORTEX125-133Pacific Conservation Biology3pPopulation viability analysis, Tricholimnas sylvestris, disease, catastrophes, inbreeding depression, endangeredThe Lord Howe Island Woodhen is a flightless rail endemic to Lord Howe Island that became endangered due to human over-exploitation and predation from wild pigs. It has recently recovered from a population size of 20-30 to around 200 as a result of a captive breeding and reintroduction programme. Its classification has been downgraded from endangered to vulnerable, but no quantitative assessment of its future prospects had been undertaken. A population viability analysis (PVA) was performed on the Lord Howe Island Woodhen to project its possible fate using VORTEX, a package that realistically reflects the woodhen's recent history. Prospective analyses showed the woodhen to be acutely sensitive to minor changes in mortality and fecundity, and to catastrophes, due to exotic species, inbreeding, or disease. A remote population needs to be established is the likelihood of the woodhen's extinction is to be minimized. According to the most recent IUCN Red List categories, the woodhen satisfies the criteria for endangered status.3041*http://pcb.murdoch.edu.au/pcb_0302_125.pdfPacific Conservation BiologyBCI1 . Fenn.ISI:000222687500001 !wbrary.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handF>?4Brook, B. W. Bowman, D.M.J.S.2002XExplaining the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions: Models, chronologies, and assumptions 14624-14627OProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America9923buffalo bubalus-bubalis; oldest human remains; northern- territory; water-buffalo; australian megafauna; human colonization; top end; paleontology; predators; preyNov 12Understanding of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions has been advanced recently by the application of simulation models and new developments in geochronological dating. Together these have been used to posit a rapid demise of megafauna due to over-hunting by invading humans. However, we demonstrate that the results of these extinction models are highly sensitive to implicit assumptions concerning the degree of prey naivety to human hunters. In addition, we show that in Greater Australia, where the extinctions occurred well before the end of the last Ice Age (unlike the North American situation), estimates of the duration of coexistence between humans and megafauna remain imprecise. Contrary to recent claims, the existing data do not prove the "blitzkrieg" model of overkill.://000179224800005*Times Cited: 0 615AZ PROC NAT ACAD SCI USAProc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.ISI:000179224800005No Terr Univ, Key Ctr Trop Wildlife Management, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia No Terr Univ, Key Ctr Trop Wildlife Management, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia Brook BW No Terr Univ, Key Ctr Trop Wildlife Management, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia10.1073/pnas.232126899>?;(Brook, B. W. Burgman, M. A. Frankham, R.2000qDifferences and congruencies between PVA packages: the importance of sex ratio for predictions of extinction risk76. [online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol4/iss1/art6Conservation Ecology41demographic stochasticity; extinction risk; individual-based models; matrix-based models; model comparison; parameter estimation; population viability analysis; sex ratio population viability analysis; conservation; wolves; alexJunjPopulation viability analysis (PVA) is used in conservation biology to predict extinction probabilities for threatened species. Previous studies have revealed large differences between the predictions of PVA modeling packages, but these comparisons included a range of nonstandard factors. A standardized comparison of five PVA packages (GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS Metapop, RAMAS Stage, and VORTEX) was conducted on six examples (two mammals, tow birds, one reptile, and a hypothetical bird/mammal-like life history). The individual- based packages (GAPPS and VORTEX) predicted a consistently higher risk of extinction than their matrix-based counterparts (INMAT and the RAMAS programs). This arose as only the former considered the effect of demographic stochasticity in the sex ratio. The difference was eliminated when only females were modeled in the matrix-based PVA packages.://000167492800024 file://D:%5CDATA%20FILES%5CJournals%5CBarry%20W.%20Brook%20PDF%20papers%5C2000%20-%20Diffs%20%26%20Congruencies%20in%20PVA%20-%20Cons%20Ecol.pdf!Times Cited: 5 411HP CONSERV ECOLConserv. Ecol.ISI:000167492800024No Territory Univ, Key Ctr Trop Wildlife Management, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia Macquarie Univ, N Ryde, NSW 2113, Australia Univ Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Brook BW No Territory Univ, Key Ctr Trop Wildlife Management, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia&http://www.consecol.org/vol4/iss1/art6k>?<mMChapman, A. P. Brook, B. W. Clutton-Brock, T. H. Grenfell, B. T. Frankham, R.2001HPopulation viability analyses on a cycling population: a cautionary tale61-69Biological Conservation971population viability analysis; density dependence; population regulation; extinction risk; Ovis aries detecting density dependence; soay sheep; ungulate population; models; instabilityJanPopulation viability analysis (PVA) packages do not always allow realistic simulation of particular life cycle features, so they may produce unrealistic predictions of extinction risk. This was suspected for a cycling Soay sheep population, Ovis aries L., that grows, overeats its habitat and then suffers high winter mortality. We compared projections of PVA models for the sheep that incorporated either an unrealistic ceiling carrying capacity using INMAT (the only choice) and VORTEX (the default)? or realistic density dependence for survival (VORTEX). At year 50, the ceiling models predicted extinction probabilities of 60.4% (INMAT) and 87.4% (VORTEX), compared to only 4.6% for the density-dependent model. Small populations were equally likely to increase or decrease with the ceiling models, while they had high probabilities of increase with the density-dependent model, as found in reality. PVA cannot be relied upon to produce realistic projections if inappropriate mechanisms of population regulation are used.://000165709400006 file://D:%5CDATA%20FILES%5CJournals%5CBarry%20W.%20Brook%20PDF%20papers%5C2001%20-%20Soay%20PVA%20-%20Biol%20Conserv.pdf!Times Cited: 2 380PC BIOL CONSERVBiol. Conserv.ISI:000165709400006WMacquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England Frankham R Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia10.1016/S0006-3207(00)00100-2>?= Brook, B. W.2000@Pessimistic and optimistic bias in population viability analysis564-566Conservation Biology1424temporal variability; conservation; behavior; modelsApr://000086275800024 file://D:%5CDATA%20FILES%5CJournals%5CBarry%20W.%20Brook%20PDF%20papers%5C2000%20-%20Bias%20in%20PVA%20-%20Cons%20Biol.pdf!Times Cited: 8 300WD CONSERV BIOLConserv. Biol.ISI:000086275800024Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia Brook BW Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2000.99039.x>?>WBrook, B. W. O'Grady, J. J. Chapman, A. P. Burgman, M. A. Akçakaya, H. R. Frankham, R.2000LPredictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology385-387Nature4046776!models; validation; ecology; riskMar 23Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely applied in conservation biology to predict extinction risks for threatened species and to compare alternative options for their mangement(1-4). It can also be used as a basis for listing species as endangered under World Conservation Union criteria(5), However, there is considerable scepticism regarding the predictive accuracy of PVA, mainly because of a lack of validation in real systems(2,6-8). Here we conducted a retrospective test of PVA based on 21 long-term ecological studies-the first comprehensive and replicated evaluation of the predictive powers of PVA. Parameters were estimated from the first half of each data set and the second half was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Contrary to recent criticisms, we found that PVA predictions were surprisingly accurate. The risk of population decline closely matched observed outcomes, there was no significant bias, and population size projections did not differ significantly from reality. Furthermore, the predictions of the five PVA software packages were highly concordant. We conclude that PVA is a valid and sufficiently accurate tool for categorizing and managing endangered species.://000086119000049 file://D:%5CDATA%20FILES%5CJournals%5CBarry%20W.%20Brook%20PDF%20papers%5C2000%20-%20Predictive%20accuracy%20of%20PVA%20-%20Nature.pdfTimes Cited: 36 298BG NATURENatureISI:000086119000049XNo Terr Univ, Key Ctr Trop Wildlife Management, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia Appl Biomath, Setauket, NY 11733 USA Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia Brook BW No Terr Univ, Key Ctr Trop Wildlife Management, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia10.1038/35006050 >??mBrook, B. W. Kikkawa, J.1998wExamining threats faced by island birds: a population viability analysis on the Capricorn silvereye using longterm data491-503Journal of Applied Ecology354data quality; extinction; metapopulation; population viability analysis zosterops-lateralis-chlorocephala; heron island; conservation; dominance; biology; modelsAug=1, Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used for assessing the extinction risk faced by endangered species and for evaluating the effects of potential management strategies. However, most PVAs are done in urgency and with limited data. 2, It is therefore important to know how the amount and quality of available ecological data affect the predictions of PVA. How can PVA results be interpreted when we have reliable, long-term population data? When a species is endangered on islands, as are many endemic bird species, what are the likely causes of the decline, and what is the probable impact of new throats? This paper investigates these issues by modelling 26 years of monitoring data on the population of Capricorn silvereyes Zosterops lateralis chlorocephala Campbell & White of Heron Island on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. 3. A PVA with parameters estimated from a relatively short (5-year) period of data collection produced very different predictions of extinction risk compared with a PVA based on more comprehensive ecological data spanning 15-25 years. This indicates that caution should be exercised when using PVA as an indicator of absolute extinction risk. 4. Despite remaining viable over the past 26 years, the Heron Island silvereye population is predicted to be at risk of extinction within the next 100 years, with the magnitude of risk depending on the severity of impact of a range of potentially threatening factors. Increased mortality due to the introduction of new predators or diseases, inbreeding depression or frequent severe storms greatly increased the extinction risk. Habitat reduction, if not very severe, is unlikely to have a large impact. Similar threats and impacts may apply to other island bird populations. 5. Movement or dispersal between neighbouring islands had a mitigating effect on extinction probability and allowed extinct island populations to be re-established. However, very small islands could only support sink populations that quickly became extinct and required an unrealistically high immigration rate to remain viable in the long term.://000077750500002 file://D:%5CDATA%20FILES%5CJournals%5CBarry%20W.%20Brook%20PDF%20papers%5C1998%20-%20Threats%20for%20island%20birds%20%5BSilvereye%20PVA%5D%20-%20J%20Appl%20Ecol.pdf!Times Cited: 12 151ZK J APPL ECOLJ. Appl. Ecol.ISI:000077750500002VMacquarie Univ, Sch Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia Macquarie Univ, Sch Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia Univ Queensland, Dept Zool, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia Brook BW Macquarie Univ, Sch Biol Sci, Key Ctr Biodivers & Bioresources, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia"10.1046/j.1365-2664.1998.3540491.x >?@m,Brook, B. W. Lim, L. Harden, R. Frankham, R.1997Does population viability analysis software predict the behaviour of real populations? A retrospective study on the Lord Howe Island woodhen Tricholimnas sylvestris (Sclater)119-128Biological Conservation822population viability analysis; Tricholimnas sylvestris; threatened; extinction old-growth forests; density-dependence; metapopulation viability; inbreeding depression; conservation; extinction; consequences; vortex; model; alexNov;Population viability analysis (PVA) is used for quantitatively assessing endangerment and comparing management options. Consequently, it is essential that PVA software packages be tested to determine whether they can accurately reflect the behaviour of real populations. A retrospective PVA was performed on the Lord Howe Island woodhen Tricholimnas sylvestris (1) to compare the predictions of five different PVA packages (INMAT, GAPPS, RAMAS/age, RAMAS/metapop and VORTEX); and (2) to test the predictions of PVA computer simulations against actual field data. All packages gave similar but unrealistic results under stochastic, densify-independent conditions. When a ceiling density dependence model was applied, projections based on a carrying capacity calculated from the habitat area proved too high. A PVA based on the knowledge available at the time of the woodhen recovery program would have produced overly optimistic projections. Only when the carrying capacity was estimated fr om the observed historical population trends did the PVA packages give realistic predictions.://A1997XR66900001 file://D:%5CDATA%20FILES%5CJournals%5CBarry%20W.%20Brook%20PDF%20papers%5C1997%20-%20How%20well%20does%20PVA%20predict%20-%20Biol%20Conserv.pdf"Times Cited: 39 XR669 BIOL CONSERVBiol. Conserv.ISI:A1997XR66900001.MACQUARIE UNIV,SCH BIOL SCI,KEY CTR BIODIVERS & BIORESOURCES,N RYDE,NSW 2109,AUSTRALIA COUNTRYWIDE ECOL SERV,CREMORNE,NSW 2090,AUSTRALIA UNIV NEW ENGLAND,DEPT ZOOL,NATL PK & WILDLIFE SERV,ARMIDALE,NSW 2351,AUSTRALIA MACQUARIE UNIV,SCH BIOL SCI,KEY CTR BIODIVERS & BIORESOURCES,N RYDE,NSW 2109,AUSTRALIA10.1016/S0006-3207(97)00026-8 ?EBrook, B. W. Bowman, D.M.J.S.20041The uncertain blitzkrieg of Pleistocene megafauna517-523Journal of Biogeography31GBody size, mammal, extinction risk, population model, overkill, hunting Guest Editorial: Aim To investigate, using a meta-analysis of empirical data and population modelling, probable scenarios for the cause of late Pleistocene global mammal extinctions. We also evaluate the rate at which these extinctions may have occurred, providing a test of the so-called 'blitzkrieg' hypothesis, which postulates a rapid, anthropogenically-driven, extinction event. Location Global. Methods We compiled a comprehensive database of estimated body-masses of mammals, comprising 198 extinct and 433 surviving species >5kg, derived through a literature search. We used a mechanistic population model that simulated the role of human hunting efficiency, meat off-take, relative naivety of prey to invading humans, variation in reproductive fitness of prey, and deterioration of habitat quality (that could be due to either anthropogenic landscape burning or climate change, and explored the capacity of different modelling scenarios to recover the observed empirical relationship between body mass and extinction proneness. For the best-fitting scenarios, we calculated the rate at which the extinction event would have occurred. All of the modelling was based on sampling randomly from a plausible range of parameters (and their interactions) which affect human and animal population demographics. Results The relationship between body-mass and extinction risk relationship increases continuously from small- to large-sized animals, with no clear 'megafaunal' threshold. A logistic regression model explains 86% of the variation in the observed extinctions. Population modelling demonstrates that there were many plausible mechanistic scenarios capable of reproducing the empirical relationship, such as specific targeting of large animals by humans, or various combinations of habitat change and opportunistic hunting. Yet, given the current imperfect knowledge base, it is impossible to use modeling to isolate definitively any single scenario to explain the observed extinctions. However, a universal prediction, applying in all scenarios in which the empirical body mass-extinction risk distribution was correctly predicted, was for the extinctions to be rapid following human arrival, and for surviving fauna to be suppressed below their pre-'blitzkrieg' densities. Main conclusions Human colonisation in the late Pleistocene triggered a 'blitzkrieg' of the 'megafauna', but the operational details remain uncertain.Submitted 21 August 2003 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2003.01028.x?G Brook, B. W.20042Australasian bird invasions: accidents of history?33-42Ornithological Science3OBiological invasions, Bird introductions, Life history, Australia, New Zealand.Exotic bird introductions to Australia, New Zealand and surrounding islands, have been aggregated into one of the best documented and most completely analysed datasets available on biological invasions. Of the >242 species introduced by Europeans to Australasia during the 18th-20th centuries, at least 32% established long-term viable populations. A review of the literature reveals the most robust predictors of introduction success to be total number of individuals liberated, and the number of separate attempts at introduction. Using generalized linear modelling on a combined regional dataset, I confirm this result, and demonstrate that together these two characteristics of historical introductions correctly explains the observed outcome in 89.3% of cases in Australasia. Further, I show that a simple stochastic population dynamics model, derived for a sub-set of 44 species from entirely independent long-term studies, is also able to achieve a high degree of predictive success (83%). Finally, a suite of meta-analyses have shown the strongest life history and environmental correlates of introduction success to be large body size, low propensity to migrate, climatically matched habitats across the native and invasive geographical range, sexually monochromatic plumage, dietary generalism, and greater behavioural flexibility. The collective results of these analyses on Australasian introductions provide a potentially powerful framework for predicting the probable outcomes of future bird invasions worldwide.4Invited review by NS Sodhi; submitted 29 August 200310.2326/osj.3.334?Rj%Brook, Barry W. Griffiths, Anthony D.2004iFrillneck Lizard Chlamydosaurus kingii in northern Australia: determining optimal fire management regimes312-3251Species Conservation and Management: Case StudiesYAkçakaya, H.R. Burgman, M.A. Kindvall, O. Sjögren-Gulve, P. Hatfield, J. McCarthy, M.A.New YorkOxford Univers?^.Sodhi, N. S. Koh, L.P. Brook, B. W. Ng, P.K.L.20052Beyond Singapore: Hong Kong and Asian biodiversity282-283Trends in Ecology & Evolution20610.1016/j.tree.2005.04.003 es and practices in crocodile conservation and sustainable use84-91RProceedings of the 17th Working Meeting of the IUCN-SSC Crocodile Specialist GroupDarwin, Australia IUCN: Gland24-29 May 20044http://www.wmi.com.au/csg17/proceedings/index-2.htmlvGD?x,Traill, L.W. Brook, B. W. Bradshaw, C. J. A.2007Minimum viable population size.Encyclopedia of Earth: http://www.eoearth.org/4McGinley, M. (Topic Editor) Cleveland, C.C. (Editor)Washington, D.CUEnvironmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment=http://www.eoe_?dSodhi, N. S. Brook, B. W.2006&Southeast Asian Biodiversity in Crisis192 Cambrige Tropical Biology Series London, UKCambridge University PressLChapter 1: Dwindling habitats We will report on deforestation rates and loss of other terrestrial habitats (e.g., mangroves) within Southeast Asia. We will compare the habitat loss in Southeast Asia with other tropical areas. We plan t, and o show that habitat loss within Southeast Asia has been unprecedented and rapid. We will restrict our discussion and analyses to the terrestrial habitats, as they these have been more extensively damaged or lost during recent times. Chapter 2: Biodiversity in a hotspot Our objective here will be to highlight the importance of Southeast Asian biodiversity. We plan to show that due to high diversity and endemicity, Southeast Asian Biodiversity is very critical in the realm of global biodiversity. The analysis will be as wide extensive as possible, taking into consideration both animals and plants from a wide range of taxonomic groups. This will tie in with the first chapter and will strengthen our argument that there is a pressing need to conserve Southeast Asian biodiversity. Chapter 3: Biotic losses and other effects of habitat degradation We will report on the effects of habitat loss on the biodiversity. We will briefly present the case studies of biotic losses. We will also highlight, for selected taxa, what are the characteristics that make a species more or less extinction prone. For example, we will explore questions such as: Are naturally rare species more vulnerable to extinction than common species? Are large-sized species more vulnerable to extinctions than small-sized ones? Are there certain behaviour (s) (e.g. mixed-species flocking in birds) that make a species more extinction-prone? Do extinctions affect ecosystem functioning (e.g., loss of frugivores)? Thus in addition to reporting on the overall biotic losses, this chapter will highlight the extinction proneness of species or group of species. Chapter 4: Additional threats to the Southeast Asian biodiversity In addition to habitat loss, Southeast Asian biodiversity is under heavy threat of anthropogenic overexploitation (e.g., for food or the pet trade). Here we will highlight the effects of human exploitation on biodiversity. For example, we will illustrate the unsustainable harvesting of plants and animals as has been currently the case for theof such species as the Maleo (Macrocephalon maleo) and edible-nest swiftlets (Collocalia spp.) in Southeast Asia. One of the other consequences of habitat degradation is the spread of invasive species. We will also discuss the documented and possible effects of invasive species on the native biodiversity. Chapter 5: The Pprojectionsed future of biodiversity in the region Based on the available data, published literature and our own analyses, we will present models on the future of the biodiversity in the region. These projections will be based on reported biotic extinctions and deforestation rates. Such projections can only be made for selected taxa groups (e.g., birds) for which enough data are available. However, such projections may give indications for the future of the Southeast Asian biodiversity in general under a range of plausible prospective scenarios. Chapter 6: Conservation options The objective of this chapter will be to make recommendations for the adequate protection of existing biodiversity. We will report on the state, adequacy and complementarity of current protected areas. We will also mention aboutdiscuss the minimum preserved areas required to adequately protect the biodiversity. We will stress the need to integrate the social issues (e.g., human hunger) in order to achieve tangible conservation.Mhttp://www.cambridge.org/uk/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521839303&ss=cop978-0-521-83930-3*?i'Brook, B. W. Gillespie, R. Martin, P.S.2006Megafauna mix-up35-37Australasian Science275A re-analysis of existing evidence disputes the claim that humans and now-extinct megafauna coexisted over a long period, writes Barry Brook, Richard Gillespie and Paul Martin.J~?lj,Bowman, D.M.J.S. McIntyre, D.L. Brook, B. W.2006GIs the Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) critically endangered?134-139Pacific Conservation Biology12RExtinction, Conservation status, IUCN, Fire management, Mammal, Northern TerritoryIThe Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) is a rare conilurine rodent with a global distribution restricted to a very small area of sandstone escarpments in the Gulf of Carpentaria region of the Northern Territory. Previous assessments of its World Conservation Union (IUCN) status in 1996 had classified the species as Critically Endangered based on the restricted area of occupancy and a putative decline in the extent and quality of its closed forest habitat due to uncontrolled landscape fires. A later population viability analysis confirmed that habitat loss was potentially the single most important threatening process. Here we argue that the species should be reclassified as Vulnerable, on the basis on the following new evidence: (1) contrary to the assumption that it was a closed forest specialist, radio-tracking work has shown that and average of 43% of an individual's activity budget is spent in the savanna margins, and (2) analysis of repeat historical aerial photography has shown that the closed forest-savanna buffer habitat mosaic used by the rodents has in fact increased by 9.6% over the last 50 years, leading to an effective 14.6% increase in equivalent home range areas (from 682 to 782). Despite the reclassification of the species' conservation status, we recommend: (i) genetic studies of relatedness between isolated populations as a research priority; (ii) monitoring and maintenance of the integrity of the landscapes, including creeklines that connect patches; and (iii) consideration of the introduction of captive bred specimens into an adjacent unoccupied fragments.?http://digital.li?mBrook, B. W. Whitehead, P. J.2006*The fragile millions of the tropical north29-30Australasian Science27 ?rYBrook, B. W. Johnson, C. N.2006qSelective hunting of juveniles as a cause of the imperceptible overkill of the Australian Pleistocene 'megafauna'39-48 Alcheringa30Gextinction, age-structure, over-hunting, blitzkrieg, Diprotodon optatumUOverkill by human hunting has been consistently cited as a likely cause of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions in Australia, but little archaeological evidence has been found to support the notion of prehistoric Aboriginal people engaging in specialized "big game" hunting more than 40 millennia ago. Here we develop a demographic population model that considers explicitly the possibility of the selective harvest of small, immature (and presumably more vulnerable) individuals of the largest known marsupial, Diprotodon optatum. We show that remarkably low levels of exploitation of juveniles (the equivalent of one or two kills per 10 people per year) would have been sufficient to drive these large species to extinction within centuries, due to their slow life-histories. This conclusion is robust to assumptions regarding the compensatory response of the prey species and declines in the relative efficiency of hunting as the megafaunal populations declined. These findings dispel the idea that evidence of a sophisticated hunting toolkit and massive kill-sites are a necessary adjunct to "blitzkrieg". Ironically, although the extinction event was likely geochronologically instantaneous (given the coarse resolution of dating from that time), on the scale of human (and megafaunal) lifetimes, the unfolding overkill would have been all but imperceptible.10.1080/03115510608619573?u%Gillespie, R. Brook, B. W. Baynes, A.2006>Short overlap of humans and megafauna in Pleistocene Australia163-185 Alcheringa3010.1016/j.earscirev.2008.04.006? Brook, B. W.2008,Beyond peak oil: will black gold turn green?4-5Issues853http://issues.control.com.au/issues2008/85Brook.pdf? Brook, B. W.2008Make a stand for good science43Australasian Science292http://www.control.com.au/bi2008/294conScience.pdff? Brook, B. W.2007Extinction - past and present10-21 EcoscienceStewart, C. Green, A.Sydney"The Science Foundation for T? Brook, B. W.2007.The future of biodiversity in a changing world23-35 EcoscienceStewart, C. Green, A.Sydney"The Science Foundation forl?Brook, B. W. Russell, G.2007Global warming beefed up37-39Australasian Science28 1le/2440/36815Submitted 10 February 2005BCI1 ,827500014 10.1111/j.1467-2679.2007.00240.x?1 Brook, B.W.2008The allure of the fewe127 PLoS Biology6.http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.006012710.1371/journal.pbio.0060127 kogy71http://dx.doi.o6MODSIM 2005 International Congress on Modelling and SimulationZerger, A. Argent, R.M.Ohttp://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim05/proceedings/papers/brook.pdf. (peer-reviewed)LModelling and S?Akçakaya, H. R. Brook, B. W.2008MMethods for determining viability of wildlife populations in large landscapes449-472=Models for Planning Wildlife Conservation in Large Landscapes#Millspaugh, J.J. Thompson, F.R. IIINew YorkElsevier8.5Xhttp://wD? Brook, B. W.20087Ecological impacts of climate change: can nature adapt?Sustainable Nation#Keeney, J. Menham, T. Singerman, D.Sydney-? Brook, B. W.20084Demographics versus genetics in conservation biology35-49)Conservation Biology: Evolution in ActionCarroll, S.P. Fox, C.W.Oxford University Press1Phttp://www.amazon.com/Conservation-Biology-Evolution-Scott-Carroll/dp/0195306783978-0-195-30678-1 QQ. Brook, B.W. Whitehead, P.J. Manolis, S.C.2004ZWildlife management principl 9ss.princeton.edu/chapters/s5_8879.pdf978-0-691-12839-9 /www.amazon.com/Conservation-Biology-All-Navjot-Sodhi/dp/0199554242/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1245259204&sr=1-2978-0-199-554249 Aww.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookdescription.cws_home/715499/descriptF?mBickford, D. Lee, T.M. Koh, L.P. Sodhi, N. S. Diesmos, A.C. Brook, B. W. Sekercioglu, C.H. Bradshaw, C. J. A.2008WForgetting habitat loss in amphibian extinctions – missing the forest for the disease PLoS Biology6#10.1371/journal.pbio.0060072#r2214 x?~?,Sodhi, N. S. Brook, B. W. Bradshaw, C. J. A.2009-Causes and consequences of biotic extinctions514-520Princeton Guide to EcologyfLevin, S. Carpenter, S.R. Godfray, H.C.J. Kinzig, A.P. Loreau, M. Losos, J.B. Walker, B. Wilcove, D.S.Princeton, N.J.Princeton University Press/http://pre  Brook, B.W.1995vA retrospective and prospective population viability analysis on the Lord Howe Island woodhen, Tricholimnas sylvestris38School of Biological SciencesSydney, AustraliaMacquarie UniversityUPopulation Viability Analysis, Lord Howe Island woodhen, retrospective, VORTEX, GAPPS B.Sc. Honours July 1995Since Population Viability Analysis (PVA) is used for assessing endangerment and to compare management options, it is critical that the predictive accuracy of PVA software be evaluated. A PVA was performed on the Lord Howe Island woodhen Tricholimnas sylvestris to: (1) test PVA computer simulation predictions against actual field data; (2) compare the results of two different PVA packages; and (3) project the possible future fate of the woodhen. VORTEX, a widely used PVA package, was employed for the retrospective and prospective modeling; GAPPS was adopted as the comparative package. The life history details used for determining the simulation parameters were compiled from over a decade of field data on the woodhen population. VORTEX accurately reflected the numerical changes of woodhen's recent history. However, GAPPS predicted much lower numbers than observed, and a high probability of extinction. Prospective analyses showed the woodhen to be acutely sensitive to minor changes in mortality and fecundity, and to catastrophes, due to exotic species, inbreeding, and disease. A remote population needs to be established if the likelihood of the woodhen's extinction is to be minimised.W ? Brook, B.W.1995XA palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of a Holocene lake on subantarctic Macquarie Island47School of Biological SciencesSydneyMacquarie UniversityMsubantarctic, pollen, diatoms, Holocene, Palaeolake Nuggets, Macquarie Island B.Sc. Honours2Palaeolake Nuggets is a Holocene lacustrine deposit, found on the north-east coast of subantarctic Macquarie Island. A study of the deposit's microfossils (diatoms and pollen) and macrofossils (Myriophyllum leaves, moss fragments etc.) allowed the past environment of the lake and its surrounds to be inferred for times throughout the Holocene. Variation in the species composition and abundance of the diatoms, pollen, and macrofossils indicate a number of changes occurred. From an analysis of the diatoms and macrofossils, it is inferred that the lake was initially moderately deep and circumneutral, but gradually became shallower and more alkaline, eventually draining completely. A study of the pollen indicated that the surrounding vegetation was part of a dynamic system, with the different levels showing various stages of ecological succession, including grassland, herbfield, and a mixture of the two. Changes in sediment type and depth provided further evidence that disturbances, such as landslips, strongly influenced the nature of the lake, and its surrounding vegetation. A comparative study of the nearby modern Floating Island lake showed its diatom assemblage to differ from those found in Palaeolake Nuggets, although its physical conditions resemble those inferred for the upper levels of Palaeolake Nuggets. ((? Brook, B.W.1999(Evaluating population viability analysis334OKey Centre for Biodiversity and Bioresources, Department of Biological SciencesSydneyMacquarie University Ph.D. thesisQPopulation viability analysis is widely used in conservation biology to predict probabilities of extinction and compare management strategies for endangered species. However, it has remained unclear whether different PVA packages produce concordant predictions when applied to the same species, and whether the predictive models realistically describe the behaviour of wildlife populations. Six commonly applied PVA packages, GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS (Age, Stage and Metapop) and VORTEX, were compared for a range of life-history types. The major findings were: (1) when complex processes were included in the models, large differences were found between some packages, and even versions of the same package. The pattern of similarities and differences altered depending on the species examined. (2) When completely standardised, a consistent difference was revealed between the predicted extinction probabilities of the matrix-based packages (INMAT and RAMAS) compared to those that were individual-based (GAPPS ? Brook, B. W.2003UConservation biology: minimum sizes and habitat areas for viable wildlife populations11-13CER News790Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University|? Brook, B.W.2002Population viability analysis251-252Australian Mammalogy24210.1071/AM02251m? Brook, B.W.2002%Introduction to Conservation genetics695-696Austral Ecology2767i0?/Sodhi, N.S. Brook, B.W.2009%Biodiversity crisis in Southeast Asia84-90GPrepare for Impact! When People and Environments Collide in the Tropic jons have arisen about whether the criteria (Resolution Conf. 9.24) are adequate for this purpose. Indeed, the criteria are now being revised (COP12. Doc. 58), with FAO input. Issues germane to whether CITES should be extended to commercial fisheries (eg COP12 Doc. 61), including the possible adoption of a new name for CITES that reduces emphasis on "endangered" species, are also being discussed at COP12 (COP12 Doc. 14). 1.6. Listing global populations of commercial fisheries resources on Appendix II, with criteria that may not be adequate, and before the Parties have agreed in principle about expanding the scope of CITES, seems inappropriate. Listing on Appendix III by concerned nations is clearly an option if they believe CITES can assist with specific local problems. 1.7. From a practical viewpoint, should the five proposals be accepted as is, implementation will be costly and complicated. Identification in trade will pose a particularly challenging problem, particularly where capture, processing and sale is undertaken in different countries. Trade in processed products, especially those involving mixed species (eg fish meals), will be particularly vulnerable to disruption. 1.8. Some Parties are clearly concerned about the "thin edge of the wedge" scenario. Because products in trade (fins, flesh etc.) are not readily identifiable, it is claimed charismatic species are being nominated for listing now, which will create trade problems with unlisted species, and which will ultimately lead to the wholesale listing of species. This is a reasonable concern, because it is the stated aim of some NGOs involved in the debate. 1.9. All Parties are acutely aware that under the current operation of CITES, trade bans can be imposed to encourage responsible management and sustainable use, but can equally prove difficult to lift once in place. To maintain a trade ban on Hawksbill turtles, a commercial fishery resource in Cuba (COP12 Prop. 30), a series of arguments were put forward which would have profound implications for any commercial fishery: a. Legal trade will encourage illegal trade. b. Legal trade should only be permitted if a species is restricted to the waters of the country wishing to trade. c. Ownership should be vested in the country where spawning takes place. d. Shared marine resources should not be used and traded until: - monitoring programs throughout the whole range have been operating for an agreed number of years. - regional management programs have been agreed and implemented by all nations sharing the resource. e. Use and trade should not reduce wild populations nor compromise the role species play in the ecosystem. f. The ability to sustain harvests must be demonstrated without trial or experimental harvesting and trade. 1.11. The case that FAO should be the lead agency in any global cooperative effort aimed at improving the sustainability of commercial fisheries, in cooperation with other fisheries organizations and CITES (COP12 Docs. 16.2.1, 16.2.2 and 58), seems sound. CITES clearly has the power under international law to wield trade bans as a tool for forcing nations to change their domestic management, but the power comes with commercial risk. CITES decisions often reflect a range of values and concerns only tenuously linked to the primary fisheries problem, which is to sustain wild populations and their commercial use, for the benefit of people.c?} 7Webb, G.J.W. Whitehead, P.J. Brook, B. W. Manolis, S.C.2004oHarvesting and tra =ational Plan of Action for the Conservation and Management of Sharks", CITES may be able to assist the proponent countries and other global fisheries organisations to identify further critical research and monitoring needs, and better refine stock status at a regional level.'http://www.iwmc.org/sharks/000722-1.htmy?z Brook, B. W. Whitehead, P.J.2004=Exclosures as a means of controlling the impact of cane toads9DarwinReport to the Parks and Wildlife Service, Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment, Northern Territory Government 26 NovemberIhttp://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/48916?mode=fullConsultancy Report for NHT?{ )Brook, B. W. Whitehead, P.J. Dingle, J.K.2004Potential cane toad short to medium term control techniques - the biological feasibility and cost of exclusion as a mitigating control strategy60Darwin4Report to the Department of Heritage and Environment 19 November_http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/invasive/publications/cane-toad-exclusion/index.htmlConsultancy Report for NHT?| &Webb, G.J.W. Manolis, S.C. Brook, B.W.2003VListing sharks and other commercial fisheries species on CITES: A discussion of issues21Darwin!Wildlife Management International]Report to Parties: Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), COP12k1.1. At COP12 there are five proposals to list sharks and other commercial fisheries species on Appendix II of CITES, in accordance with Article II of the Convention. 1.2. In terms of compliance with Article II of the Convention, none of the five species have global populations demonstrated at being of risk of biological extinction, despite concerns about status in some species in some parts of their range. 1.3. Whether they may be threatened with biological extinction through international trade in the future, and whether a precautionary approach to this issue should be adopted, is unclear. The cases are no more compelling than for many other marine fish subject to commercial harvest. 1.4. To assist the Parties to make decisions about whether species merit listing in accordance with Article II of the Convention, a set of criteria were agreed by the P (Annex 4) is no more compelling than it would be for many other globally distributed species which are data deficient and not on the Appendices. 1.4. Proponents are clearly concerned about possible conservation problems with all three species, but none of the species are threatened with extinction or likely to become threatened under current management practices, and it remains unclear whether the proponents can achieve what they are seeking through involving the Parties in CITES in tightening controls on international trade. 1.5. The issues of implementation are serious ones for the Parties to consider, because it is likely to be challenging and costly, but in the end largely ineffective. That is, the Parties to CITES could obligate themselves to an untenable mandate. 1.6. It remains wholly unclear whether CITES is, or should become, a vehicle for regulating and managing marine fisheries. The management problems with marine fisheries are not biological extinction nor the recovery of threatened populations so that they can fulfil some ecologically determined role. It is the deliberate and often experimental reduction of abundance in order to maximise harvests to benefit people. The problems, skills and resources needed for fisheries management are different to those required for regulating trade in species threatened with biological extinction. 1.7. Organisations such as FAO have played a lead role in fisheries management for decades, and although it may be argued that shark management has not been adequately addressed by such organisations in the past, the same criticisms can be levelled at CITES. Some species have declined dramatically while on Appendix I. 1.8. In conjunction with FAO and its "Intern / arth.org/article/Minimum_viable_population_size ?y Brook, B.W. Webb, G.J.W.2000qProposed listing of three shark species on the Appendices of CITES at COP11 (April 2000): an assessment of issues23Darwin+Key Centre for Tropical Wildlife Management]Report to Parties: Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), COP11 1.1. At the next Conference of the Parties to CITES (COP11. Nairobi, Kenya; April 2000) three globally distributed shark species have been proposed for listing on the Appendices pursuant to Resolution Conf. 9.24: Great White shark (Carcharodon carcharias) for Appendix I; Whale shark (Rhincodon typus) for Appendix II; and Basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus) for Appendix II. 1.2. The supporting statements for all three proposals are based on similar justifications: known or suspected local, short-term population declines; inferences about likely future impacts of trade; and, presumed high vulnerability to extinction due to characteristics of the species' biology that are shared with other shark species. 1.3. We found the data presented in the supporting statements do not clearly establish compliance with Annex 1 and 2 of Resolution Conf. 9.24 in terms of the global populations, and the assumptions invoked for this purpose are also questionable. Similarly, the case for invoking Precautionary Measures  5 '://000268659500008rTimes Cited: 0 De Little, Siobhan C. Bowman, David M. J. S. Whelan, Peter I. Brook, Barry W. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 0046-225XEnviron. Entomol.ISI:00026865950000810.160 Although agricultural expansion is a primary threat to tropical biodiversity, experimental studies evaluating the conservation value of tropical agricultural habitats are scarce. In particular, little is known about the sensitivity of amphibians and reptiles to habitat disturbance in areas of very high diversity such as South-East Asia. We used a two-step approach to determine the relationship between habitat complexity and conservation value of cacao agroforestry for herpetological diversity in Sulawesi (Indonesia). Indonesia is the third largest cacao-exporting country globally and forest conversion to cacao plantations is a major threat to its biodiversity. We first sampled 43 cacao plantations six times to determine the environmental variables that best explained herpetofaunal diversity patterns using a Bayesian model selection approach. Based on these results, we experimentally manipulated leaf litter thickness (LLT), number of branch piles (LOGS) and LLT + LOGS combinations in the cacao plots. The experimental data were analysed using Bayesian hierarchical regression. The best supported correlative models incorporated LLT, LOGS, air temperature and the ratio between leaf litter and shrub cover, showing the importance of habitat heterogeneity and suggesting climate change sensitivity. The subsequent structural manipulation of these attributes changed amphibian and reptile species richness, and reptile abundance, but only addition of leaf litter did so in a biologically meaningful way, providing microhabitat resources. However, the main beneficiaries were common disturbance-tolerant reptiles. Synthesis and applications. The different results from the correlative model and the independent manipulative experiments showed how important such a combined approach is to derive adequate conservation management recommendations. Increasing leaf litter in cacao agroforestry will work best if implemented on a landscape scale to incorporate sufficient environmental variation and species life histories. This will mainly enhance the richness and abundance of disturbance-tolerant species, which still may maintain ecosystem functions such as pest removal. Particularly for rare species, native forests remain critical for herpetological richness. The direct temperature sensitivity suggests that future climate change impacts may be severe for herpetological diversity in plantation habitats and, hence, demand further research.://000267706000011~Times Cited: 0 Wanger, Thomas C. Saro, Akbar Iskandar, Djoko T. Brook, Barry W. Sodhi, Navjot S. Clough, Yann Tscharntke, Teja 0021-8901J. Appl. Ecol.ISI:000267706000011 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2009.01663.x://000267538200004VTimes Cited: 0 Traill, Lochran W. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Field, Hume E. Brook, Barry W. 0006-3606 BiotropicaISI:000267538200004 10.1111/j.1744-7429.2009.00508.x://000267236700004ETimes Cited: 0 Sodhi, Navjot S. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Brook, Barry W. 0376-8929Environ. Conserv.ISI:00026723670000410.1017/s0376892909005463://000266864000006ETimes Cited: 0 Traill, Lochran W. Whitehead, Peter J. Brook, Barry W. 0158-4197EmuISI:00026686400000610.1071/mu09003 JF://000265536600017CTimes Cited: 1 Yang, Guo-Jing Brook, Barry W. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 1935-2735Plos Neglect. Trop. Dis.ISI:000265536600017!e385 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000385://000264351900004xTimes Cited: 1 Anderson, B. J. Akcakaya, H. R. Araujo, M. B. Fordham, D. A. Martinez-Meyer, E. Thuiller, W. Brook, B. W. 0962-8452Proc. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci.ISI:00026435190000410.1098/rspb.2008.1681://000264443200015XTimes Cited: 1 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Brook, Barry W. Peh, Kelvin S. -H. Sodhi, Navjot S. 0044-7447AmbioISI:00026444320001510.1579/0044-7447-38.2.125H://000263908400019ETimes Cited: 5 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Sodhi, Navjot S. Brook, Barry W. 1540-9295Front. Ecol. Environ.ISI:00026390840001910.1890/070193n 50% experimental population reduction) in adult density. This was achieved through an increase in hatchling recruitment and survival into larger size classes. Our manipulative experiments, viewed concomitantly with previous experimental and correlative research, challenge the general perceptions that freshwater turtles universally are highly susceptible to any form of off-take and that high sub-adult and adult survival is crucial for achieving long-term population stability in freshwater turtles generally. In the case of C. rugosa, such generalities would produce overly cautious prescriptions for sustainable management.://000263424800003ATimes Cited: 0 Fordham, Damien A. Georges, Arthur Brook, Barry W. 0029-8549 OecologiaISI:00026342480000310.1007/s00442-008-1217-5 b ,>Wanger, T. C. Motzke, I. Furrer, S. C. Brook, B. W. Gruber, B.2009How to monitor elusive lizards: comparison of capture-recapture methods on giant day geckos (Gekkonidae, Phelsuma madagascariensis grandis) in the Masoala rainforest exhibit, Zurich Zoo345-353Ecological Research242Capture-mark-recapture Finite-mixture models Model averaging Accumulation curve method Line transect method Method comparison GEHYRA-VARIEGATA GEKKONIDAE ESTIMATING POPULATION-SIZE BEHAVIORAL-RESPONSE ABUNDANCE MODELS PERFORMANCE ANIMALS PROGRAM ISLAND BIRDSMarRapid and reliable estimation of population size is needed for the efficient monitoring of animal populations of conservation concern. Unfortunately, technical advances in this area have not been paralleled in uptake in conservation, which may be due to difficulties in implementation or the lack of general guidelines for application. Here we tested five different methods used to estimate population size [capture-mark-recapture (CMR), finite-mixture models, model averaging of finite-mixture models, accumulation curve methods (ACM), and the line transect method (LT)] using extensive capture-recapture data of the giant day gecko (Gekkonidae, Phelsuma madagascariensis grandis, Gray 1870) at the Masoala rainforest exhibit, Zurich Zoo. When the complete data were analyzed [30 sessions (and 27 sessions for the LT)], all methods except the LT produced similar estimates of population size. The simple ACM gave a small coefficient of variation (CV), but did not cover the most likely value of population size at moderate sampling effort. Nevertheless, the ACM was the only method that showed a reasonable convergence when subsets of data were used. CMR and Pledger models included the reference value in their confidence intervals (CI) after 25 and 30 sessions, respectively. Although model averaging did slightly improve the estimate, the CV was still high for the full dataset. Our method of using subsets of data to test the robustness of estimates is simple to apply and could be adopted more widely in such analyzes to evaluate sensitivity to method of evaluation. In conclusion, simple accumulation methods showed similar efficiency to more complex statistical models, and are likely to be sufficiently precise for most conservation monitoring purposes.://000263504100012]Times Cited: 0 Wanger, Thomas C. Motzke, Iris Fur ://000262576700007jTimes Cited: 0 McMahon, Clive R. Bester, Marthan N. Hindell, Mark A. Brook, Barry W. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 0029-8549 OecologiaISI:00026257670000710.1007/s00442-008-1205-9 70% under various model combinations of high tide frequency, rainfall, and relative humidity, of which, high tide frequency and rainfall had the highest contributions. Temporal variation in K was explained weakly by high tide frequency, and there was some evidence that the filling of depressions to reduce standing water availability has reduced Aedes vigilax carrying capacity over the study period. This study underscores the need to consider simultaneously both types of drivers (endogenous and exogenous) when predicting mosquito abundance and population growth patterns. This work also indicates that climate change, via continued increases in rainfall and higher expected frequencies and intensities of high tide events with sea level rise, will alter mosquito abundance trends in northern Australia.://000262605500016aTimes Cited: 2 Yang, Guo-Jing Brook, Barry W. Whelan, Peter I. Cleland, Sam Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 1051-0761 Ecol. Appl.ISI:00026260550001610.1890/07-1209.1 ://000261961100014LTimes Cited: 2 Sodhi, Navjot S. Lee, Tien Ming Koh, Lian Pin Brook, Barry W. 0006-3606 BiotropicaISI:000261961100014 10.1111/j.1744-7429.2008.00460.x://000261620800001Times Cited: 0 Brook, Barry W. 0021-8790J. Anim. Ecol.ISI:000261620800001 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01490.x C://000259860900012CTimes Cited: 0 O'Grady, J. J. Reed, D. H. Brook, B. W. Frankham, R. 1367-9430Anim. Conserv.ISI:000259860900012 10.1111/j.1469-1795.2008.00201.x`://000258390900009FTimes Cited: 16 Brook, Barry W. Sodhi, Naviot S. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 0169-5347Trends Ecol. Evol.ISI:00025839090000910.1016/j.tree.2008.03.011 ://000258379800005bTimes Cited: 1 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Giam, Xingli Tan, Hugh T. W. Brook, Barry W. Sodhi, Navjot S. 0022-0477J. Ecol.ISI:000258379800005 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2008.01408.x /://000258306300016lTimes Cited: 1 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Fitzpatrick, Ben M. Steinberg, Craig C. Brook, Barry W. Meekan, Mark G. 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00025830630001610.1016/j.biocon.2008.05.007 ://000256763300007TTimes Cited: 5 Yang, Guo-Jing Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Whelan, Peter I. Brook, Barry W. 1438-3896 Popul. Ecol.ISI:00025676330000710.1007/s10144-008-0082-8'://000256182700001/Times Cited: 1 Sodhi, Navjot S. Brook, Barry W. 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00025618270000110.1016/j.biocon.2007.12.027,://000256045500010Times Cited: 5 Brook, Barry W. 1035-3712 Wildl. Res.ISI:00025604550001010.1071/wr07116k://000255751600006?Times Cited: 0 Noske, Richard A. Fischer, Sarah Brook, Barry W. 0912-3814 Ecol. Res.ISI:00025575160000610.1007/s11284-007-0403-yModelling to forestall extinction of Australian tropical birds S311-S320Journal of Ornithology148threatened tropical birds modelling extinction probabilities Australia EARLY WET SEASON CLIMATE-CHANGE NORTH QUEENSLAND RAIN-FORESTS RANGE SIZE RISK BIODIVERSITY PATTERNS ECOLOGY HABITATDecThe tropics support some of the world's richest centres of species diversity and endemism, yet these biomes are now dangerously imperilled by anthropogenic change. If we are to avert, or at least mitigate, catastrophic loss of species in these areas, it is vital to understand the direct and indirect effects of these agents of threat. Moreover, provision of a robust theoretical and empirical underpinning for the relationship between evolved characteristics (life-history traits and ecological preferences) and extinction risk may provide a general theory of extinction process that would be useful for conservation management. Birds provide some of the best quantitative data in tropical regions on the rate and selectivity of extinctions. Also, their autecology is better known than most other tropical taxonomic groups, making them ideal candidates for the application and testing of extinction theory and viability models. Using the relatively well-studied avifauna of the Australian tropics as an example, we apply population, habitat and threat data based on observed trends, in combination with various lines of surrogate information, to develop a predictive framework for extinction vulnerability of the region's birds. Our inferences are based on generalized linear mixed modelling from an a priori set of models that include range, population, life history and threat variables. The best-selected model, with 92% of the AIC weight of evidence, was then used to rank the 387 species in terms of relative threat. We compare these results with predictions based on trends in habitat alone, and consider the likely impact of projected future threats during the twenty-first century.://000255199000022;Times Cited: 0 Garnett, Stephen T. Brook, Barry W. Suppl. 2 0021-8375 J. Ornithol.ISI:00025519900002210.1007/s10336-007-0202-9 ://000254623600005nTimes Cited: 3 Franklin, Donald C. Petty, Aaron M. Williamson, Grant J. Brook, Barry W. Bowman, David M. J. S. 0364-152XEnviron. Manage.ISI:00025462360000510.1007/s00263w://000252827500014Times Cited: 0 del Monte-Luna, Pablo Lluch-Belda, Daniel Carmona, Roberto Reyes-Bonilla, Hector Castro-Aguirre, Jose Luis Serviere-Zaragoza, Elisa Aurioles-Gamboa, David Guzman del Proo, Sergio A. Trujillo-Millan, Oscar Elorduy-Garay, Juan Felix Brook, Barry W. 0378-1844 IntercienciaISI:000252 ://000252558400007ATimes Cited: 4 Fordham, Damien A. Georges, Arthur Brook, Barry W. 0021-8901J. Appl. Ecol.ISI:000252558400007 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01414.x ://000251584500001Times Cited: 4 Sodhi, Navjot S. Koh, Lian Pin Peh, Kelvin S. -H. Tan, Hugh T. W. Chazdon, Robin L. Corlett, Richard T. Lee, Tien Ming Colwell, Robert K. Brook, Barry W. Sekercioglu, Cagan H. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 1366-9516Divers. Distrib.ISI:000251584500001 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00398.x,://000251158500017=Times Cited: 1 Brook, Barry W. Rowley, Nick FlanneryO, Tim F. 0028-0836NatureISI:00025115850001710.1038/450478d V K://000250601100001hTimes Cited: 5 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Field, Iain C. Bowman, David M. J. S. Haynes, Chris Brook, Barry W. 1035-3712 Wildl. Res.ISI:00025060110000110.1  4://000250297300004GTimes Cited: 3 Banfai, Daniel S. Brook, Barry W. Bowman, David M. J. S. 1366-9516Divers. Distrib.ISI:000250297300004 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2 ://000250262800012YTimes Cited: 10 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Sodhi, Navjot S. Peh, Kelvin S. -H. Brook, Barry W. 1354-1013Glob. Change Biol.ISI:000250262800012 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x ://000249992400021ATimes Cited: 6 Fordham, Damien A. Georges, Arthur Brook, Barry W. 0021-8790J. Anim. Ecol.ISI:000249992400021 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2007.01298.x 50% of the variation in IUCN threat status. We conclude that a species' or population's MVP is context-specific, and there are no simple short-cuts to its derivation. However, our findings are consistent with biological theory and MVPs derived from abundance time series in that the MVP for most species will exceed a few thousand individuals. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.://000249935400015GTimes Cited: 9 Traill, Lochran W. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Brook, Barry W. 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00024993540001510.1016/j.biocon.2007.06.011://0002482017000100Times Cited: 3 Elliott, Louis P. Brook, Barry W. 0006-3568 BioscienceISI:00024820170001010.1641/b570708  ://000247757200018xTimes Cited: 3 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Isagi, Yuji Kaneko, Shingo Brook, Barry W. Bowman, David M. J. S. Frankham, Richard 0962-1083 Mol. Ecol.ISI:000247757200018 10.1111/j.1365-294X. {AU$200,000 is possible from meat production and safari hunting without compromising long-term population stability or the conservation status of this endangered bovid.://0002470673000054Times Cited: 1 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Brook, Barry W. 0890-8575Nat. Resour. Model.ISI:000247067300005"10.1111/j.1939-7445.2007.tb00203.x[://000246966600002Times Cited: 2 del Monte-Luna, Pablo Lluch-Belda, Daniel Serviere-Zaragoza, Elisa Carmona, Roberto Reyes-Bonilla, Hector Aurioles-Gamboa, David Luis Castro-Aguirre, Jose Guzman del Proo, Sergio A. Trujillo-Millan, Oscar Brook, Barry W. 1467-2960 Fish. Fish.ISI:000246966600002 10.1111/j.1467-2679.2007.00240.xe://000246843200002FTimes Cited: 2 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Brook, Barry W. McMahon, Clive R. 0888-8892Conserv. Biol.ISI:000246843200002 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00698.x ://000246363400010XTimes Cited: 6 Bowman, David M. J. S. Franklin, Donald C. Price, Owen F. Brook, Barry W. 1442-9985 Austral Ecol.ISI:000246363400010 10.1111/j.1442-999D://000245779200021Times Cited: 12 Brook, Barry W. Bowman, David M. J. S. Burney, David A. Flannery, Timothy F. Gagan, Michael K. Gillespie, Richard Johnson, Christopher N. Kershaw, Peter Magee, John W. Martin, Paul S. Miller, Gifford H. Peiser, Benny Roberts, Richard G. 0277-3791Quat. Sci. Rev.ISI:00024577920002110.1016/j.quascirev://000245261700016ITimes Cited: 0 Smith, J. G. Brook, B. W. Griffiths, A. D. Thompson, G. G. 0022-1511 J. Herpetol.ISI:000245261700016-10.1670/0022-1511(2007)41[133:CMPSIV]2.0.CO;2~s://000244483400007<Times Cited: 0 Prior, L. D. Bowman, D. M. J. S. Brook, B. W. 0912-3814 Ecol. Res.ISI:00024448340000710.1007/s11284Pandit, M. K. Sodhi, N. S. Koh, L. P. Bhaskar, A. Brook, B. W.2007\Unreported yet massive deforestation driving loss of endemic biodiversity in Indian Himalaya153-163Biodiversity and Conservation161~extinctions hot spots deforestation species-area-relationship endemic species TROPICAL FORESTS EXTINCTIONS HOTSPOTS BIRDS ASIAJanDeforestation is a primary driver of biotic extinctions in the tropics. The impacts of deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots are of particular concern because these regions contain high concentrations of globally endemic species. However, the effects of large-scale deforestation on native biotas within the biodiversity hotspot of Himalaya remain poorly documented. Here we report on an alarming trend of deforestation in the Indian Himalaya and project the likely consequential extinctions of endemic taxa (species and subspecies) by 2100 across a broad range of taxonomic groups, including gymnosperms, angiosperms, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. With the current level of deforestation, by 2100 only about 10% of the land area of the Indian Himalaya will be covered by dense forest (> 40% canopy cover)-a scenario in which almost a quarter of the endemic species could be wiped out, including 366 endemic vascular plant taxa and 35 endemic vertebrate taxa. We also show that inaccurate reporting of forest cover data by governmental institutions can result in underestimations of the biological impacts of deforestation, as well as potential miscalculations in land-use decisions (e.g., the construction of hydroelectric dams). Large-scale conservation efforts, including forest protection and reforestation, are urgently needed to avoid the impending deforestation-driven biodiversity losses in the Himalaya.://000244185900011YTimes Cited: 7 Pandit, M. K. Sodhi, Navjot S. Koh, Lian Pin Bhaskar, Arun Brook, Barry W. 0960-3115Biodivers. Conserv.ISI:00024418590001110.1007/s10531-006-9038-5C://000240313200069<Times Cited: 0 Garnett, S. Brook, B. W. Crowley, G. Suppl. 1 0021-8375 J. Ornithol.ISI:00024031320006910.1007/s10336-006-0093-1 %://000242797500010ITimes Cited: 7 Fordham, Damien Georges, Arthur Corey, Ben Brook, Barry W. 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00024279750001010.1016/j.biocon.2006.07.001 ://000242377600026/Times Cited: 1 Brook, Barry W. Sodhi, Navjot S. 0028-0836NatureISI:00024237760002610.1038/444555a l://0002420893000075Times Cited: 9 Brook, Barry W. Bowman, David M. J. S. 0921-2973 Landsc. Ecol.ISI:00024208930000710.1007/s109802://000241823900004xTimes Cited: 34 O'Grady, Julian J. Brook, Barry W. Reed, David H. Ballou, Jonathan D. Tonkyn, David W. Frankham, Richard 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00024182390000410.1016/j.biocon.2006.05.016= 5 cm diameter at breast height, DBH) and saplings (>= 1.5 m height and < 5 cm DBH) and height growth of juveniles (< 1.5 m height) in response to fire, tree size, stand basal area, annual rainfall, and for adult trees, the presence of the introduced Asian swamp buffalo (a potentially growth-limiting herbivore). The analysis was based on two medium-term datasets from natural eucalypt savanna in Kakadu National Park in the Australian monsoonal tropics. One dataset was based on a 7-year experiment examining the effect of buffalo removal during which three fires occurred, and the second was derived from a 4-year study in which three experimental fire treatments (annual early dry season fire, annual late dry season fire and no fire) were imposed. An unplanned, extremely severe fire burnt some of the previously unburnt trees in the final year of this latter experiment, so we considered it as an additional fire treatment. Despite high variance, there was strong evidence for differential effects of the fire treatments on tree growth, and these effects differed among the three size groups. Late and extreme fires resulted in a high proportion of individuals with negative DBH increments (due to burning or shedding of bark, and also to stems being killed and replaced by small stems), and decreased average DBH growth of saplings (-0.17 and -1.38 cm year(-1), respectively-cf. 0.22 cm year(-1) for no fire) and adult trees (0.01 and 0.03 cm year(-1), respectively-cf. 0.18 cm year(-1) for no fire). Early fires decreased DBH growth of saplings (0.11-cf. 0.22 cm year(-1) for no fire) but increased growth of adult trees (0.29-cf. 0.18 cm year(-1)). Height growth of juvenile trees was reduced by early fires (0.01-cf. 0.06 m year(-1) for no fire) but was increased by late fires (0.10 m year(-1)), probably because juveniles are physiologically active early in the dry season, but are effectively dormant in the late dry season. When stand basal area was high there was evidence of growth suppression in adults, saplings and juveniles. Growth of adult trees was lower in years with high rainfall and where buffalo were removed, possibly because of increased competition from ground layer vegetation. Our study casts doubt on the sustainability of the frequent, early dry season fires that have become a management goal in much of northern Australia. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.://000241292000016Times Cited: 13 Prior, Lynda D. Brook, Barry W. Williams, Richard J. Werner, Patricia A. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Bowman, David M. J. S. 0378-1127For. Ecol. Manage.ISI:00024129200001610.1016/j.foreco. 2 years 0.9937). In the absence of fire, simulations conducted to explore management options revealed a positive rate of increase with exclusion of introduced animals. With only partial introduced animal control or supplementation with juvenile plants, the median rate of increase remained negative. The regional population is at risk by more frequent and more intense fire due to the invasion of exotic grass species and land use changes in the catchment which result in an increased drying of the rainforest habitat. Ongoing decline is the most likely outcome in the absence of effective management intervention. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.://000240794500009_Times Cited: 4 Liddle, David T. Brook, Barry W. Matthews, Janet Taylor, Stephen M. Caley, Peter 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00024079450000910.1016/j.biocon.2006.04.028 ://000239726700016PTimes Cited: 6 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Fukuda, Yusuke Letnic, Mike Brook, Barry W. 1051-0761 Ecol. Appl.ISI:000239726700016/10.1890/1051-0761(2006)016[1436:IKSOUT]2.0.CO;2X://000239657000011rTimes Cited: 5 Brook, Barry W. Bowman, David M. J. S. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Campbell, Bruce M. Whitehead, Peter J. 0364-152XEnviron. Manage.ISI:00023965700001110.1007/s0026 Conservation value of non-native banteng in northern Australia 1306-1311Conservation Biology204Bos javanicus endangered species translocation non-native species semidomestication SATELLITE DNA BOS-JAVANICUS CATTLE MICROSATELLITES MITOCHONDRIAL MARKERS POPULATIONS MANAGEMENT PHYLOGENY BREEDSAugThe global species extinction crisis has provided the impetus for elaborate translocation, captive breeding, and cloning programs, but more extreme actions may be necessary. We used mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosome, and nuclear lactoferrin-encoding gene sequencing to identify a wild population of a pure-strain endangered bovid (Bos javanicus) introduced into northern Australia over 150 years ago. This places the Australian population in a different conservation category relative to its domesticated conspecific in Indonesia (i.e., Bali cattle) that has varying degrees of introgression from other domesticated Bos spp. The success of this endangered non-native species demonstrates that although risky, the deliberate introduction of threatened exotic species into non-native habitat may provide, under some circumstances, a biologically feasible option for conserving large herbivores otherwise imperiled in their native range.://000239545500042fTimes Cited: 5 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Isagi, Yuji Kaneko, Shingo Bowman, David M. J. S. Brook, Barry W. 0888-8892Conserv. Biol.ISI:000239545500042 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2://0002393354000011Times Cited: 7 Gillespie, Richard Brook, Barry W. 0003-8121Archaeol. Ocean.ISI:000239335400001://0002386584000125Times Cited: 37 Brook, Barry W. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 0012-9658EcologyISI:000238658400012.10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1445:SOEFDD]2.0.CO;2://000238085500014FTimes Cited: 1 Bradshaw, Corey J. A. McMahon, Clive R. Brook, Barry W. 1540-9295Front. Ecol. Environ.ISI:000238085500014+10.1890/1540-9295(2006)004[0235:WB]2.0.CO;2://000236766500002Times Cited: 25 0006-3606 BiotropicaISI:000236766500002 10.1111/j.1744-7429.2006.00141.x://000236384100001Times Cited: 23 1461-023X Ecol. Lett.ISI:000236384100001 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00883.x#://000235293300025Times Cited: 8 0004-8038AukISI:000235293300025.10.1642/0004-8038(2006)123[0275:SABIP]2.0.CO;2://000233130900010Times Cited: 0 Part 2 0952-8369J. Zool.ISI:00023313090001010.1017/s0952836905007429://000231518600007Times Cited: 6 1438-3896 Popul. Ecol.ISI:00023151860000710.1007/s10144://000231065300009Times Cited: 10 1035-3712 Wildl. Res.ISI:00023106530000910.1071/wr02104://000231065300010Times Cited: 5 1035-3712 Wildl. Res.ISI:00023106530001010.1071/wr02105A 5,000 ha) if we arc to preserve existing lowland avifauna.://000230998800006Times Cited: 7 0959-2709Bird Conserv. Int.ISI:00023099880000610.1017/s0959270905000146>://000227592100006Times Cited: 15 0906-7590 EcographyISI:000227592100006 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.04088.x://000225778100012Times Cited: 97 0169-5347Trends Ecol. Evol.ISI:00022577810001210.1016/j.tree.2004.09.006://000225737300020Times Cited: 36 0888-8892Conserv. Biol.ISI:000225737300020 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00468.x://000225737300026Times Cited: 12 0888-8892Conserv. Biol.ISI:000225737300026 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00109.x://000224688700051Times Cited: 135 0027-8424Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.ISI:00022468870005110.1073/pnas.0403809101://000224648000002Times Cited: 12 0960-7447Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr.ISI:000224648000002 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2004.00131.x$://000224482600002Times Cited: 9 1146-609XActa Oecol.-Int. J. Ecol.ISI:00022448260000210.1016/j.actao.2004.01.008E://000224071800003Times Cited: 0 0888-8892Conserv. Biol.ISI:000224071800003 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.l02_2.xn://000223770700002Times Cited: 47 1566-0621Conserv. Genet.ISI:000223770700002"10.1023/B:COGE.0000041030.76598.cdpS://000222092900016Times Cited: 12 0006-3606 BiotropicaISI:000222092900016 10.1646/Q15662://000221901700009Times Cited: 51 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00022190170000910.1016/j,biocon.2003.10.002U30-fold) in the last 15-16 y while that of the white-vented and common myna declined. Habitat-abundance relationships suggest that house crows are highly dependent on anthropogenic food. Their abundance was also positively related to proximity to coast. The common myna associated closely with agricultural areas while the white-vented myna probably preferred urban greenery among residential buildings. Our study shows that the three invasive bird species associated with different aspects of human-modified environment.://000186710800008Times Cited: 3 Part 6 0266-4674J. Trop. Ecol.ISI:00018671080000810.1017/s02664674030060849://000186753900002Times Cited: 19 1442-9985 Austral Ecol.ISI:000186753900002&10.1046/j.1442-9993.2003.t01-1-01316.x7://000186216800016Times Cited: 5 0022-541XJ. Wildl. Manage.ISI:00018621680001610.2307/38026883://000185981500006Times Cited: 11 1438-3896 Popul. Ecol.ISI:00018598150000610.1007/s10144-003-0145-9://000184318400041Times Cited: 108 0028-0836NatureISI:00018431840004110.1038/nature01795 ://000183591000003Times Cited: 75 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00018359100000310.1016/S0006-3207(02)00346-4 Pardon, L. G. Brook, B. W. Griffiths, A. D. Braithwaite, R. W.2003aDeterminants of survival for the northern brown bandicoot under a landscape-scale fire experiment106-115Journal of Animal Ecology721Akaike information criterion capture-mark-recapture analysis fire management marsupial savanna tropical CAPTURE-RECAPTURE DATA MARKED ANIMALS TROPICAL SAVANNA AUSTRALIA DECLINE MAMMALS TERRITORY HABITAT MODEL POPULATIONSJanl1. More than half of all Australian bandicoot species (family Peramelidae) are listed by the IUCN as extinct or threatened and changed fire regimes in arid and semi-arid Australia have been identified as an important agent in their decline. The northern brown bandicoot is currently one of Australia's most common bandicoots, but their continued persistence in the tropical savannas cannot be taken for granted. Previous studies in Kakadu National Park, Northern Territory have shown this species to be prone to sudden declines in abundance, possibly linked to the occurrence of intense fires. 2. Here we examine the impact of four experimental fire management regimes (fire prevention, early dry season burning, late dry season burning and progressive burning several times through the dry season) on survival of the northern brown bandicoot. The analysis is based on capture-mark-recapture data obtained during a landscape-scale fire experiment conducted at Kapalga, in Kakadu National Park from 1989 to 1995. 3. All experimental fire treatments (including total fire exclusion) were associated with decline in survival rates over time, indicating that none of the tested approaches were appropriate for this species. Burning in the late dry season or progressively throughout the dry season produced substantially more severe declines in survival than did early dry season fires or fire exclusion. 4. Fire regime was found to be the most important determinant of bandicoot survival, far exceeding other factors such as gender, age, vegetation type, rainfall and season, all of which had comparatively little influence. The results demonstrate the importance of the frequency and seasonal timing of fires in determining the survival of bandicoots and suggest that spatially uniform and temporally invariant fire regimes are inappropriate for bandicoot conservation in the north Australian savannas.://000180926600010Times Cited: 24 0021-8790J. Anim. Ecol.ISI:000180926600010 10.1046/j.1365-2656.2003.00686.x://000179706800018Times Cited: 6 0022-541XJ. Wildl. Manage.ISI:00017970680001810.2307/3802943m://000177849700003Times Cited: 6 0301-4797J. Environ. Manage.ISI:00017784970000310.1006/jema.2002.0561://000177892600007Times Cited: 46 1195-5449Conserv. Ecol.ISI:000177892600007'http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss1/art16://000176832700019Times Cited: 13 0030-6053OryxISI:00017683270001910.1017/s0030605302000248://000176279400003Times Cited: 10 0169-2046Landsc. Urban Plan.ISI:00017627940000310.1016/S0169-2046(02)00047-6://000174643800006Times Cited: 31 0912-3814 Ecol. Res.ISI:000174643800006 10.1046/j.1440-1703.2002.00463.x://000173726400029Times Cited: 38 0888-8892Conserv. Biol.ISI:000173726400029 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.01426.x`://000204810600004aTimes Cited: 19 Brook, Barry W. Cannon, John R. Lacy, Robert C. Mirande, Claire Frankham, Richard 1367-9430Anim. Conserv.ISI:000204810600004"10.1111/j.1469-1795.1999.tb00045.x_kd?*iBradshaw, C. J.A. Brook, B. W.2009eThe Cronus hypothesis - extinctio8x?+Ydel Monte-Luna, P. Castro-Aguirre, J.L. Brook, B.W. Cruz-Agüero, J. Cruz-Escalona, V.H. 2009JPutative extinction of two sawfish species in Mexico and the United States509-512Neotropical Icthyol ?-Brook, B.W. Lowe, I.2010Why vs Why: Nuclear PowerSydney Pantera PressFhttp://www.panterapress.com.au/shop/product/5/why-vs-why-nuclear-power978-0-9807418-5-8128 4$Physics*http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/4196679 2ISI:00026350410001210.1007/s11284-008-0511-3 arall PVA predictions were relatively realistic, if slightly pessimistic. However, some species pr ; imulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005Aerial photography, Bootstrapped coefficients, Historical ecology, Generalized linear modelling, Geographic Information Systems, Landscape ecology, Vegetation dynamics.>http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim05/proceedings/papers/brook.pdfI0-9758400-2-9q~?w!6Webb, G.J.W ks-Stacey, N. Boggs, G. Campbell, B. Steffen, W.DarwinCharles Darwin University Presshttp://www.cdu.edu.au/cdss06059F?0Brook, B.W. Taggart, S.2009ZThe looming peak coal and peak phosphate crises: disaster or opportunities for innovation?311-316COpportunities Beyond Carbon: Looking Forward to a Sustainable World O'Brien, J. MelbourneMelbourne University Presshttp://www.mup.com.au/page/118978-0-522-856897 78-0-980-665017 Drg/10.1590/S1679-6225200900030002010.1590/S1679-62252009000300020 n as a necessary and dynamic balance to evolutionary diversification221-229Journal of Cosmology20http://journalofcosmology.com/Extinction100.html *dx.doi.org/10.1086/64467210.1086/644672 Ew of Biology84 http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/64814310.1086/648143 ion (BIC) demographic Allee effect empirical support evidence exponential population dynamics random walk Ricker density-dependence population-dynamics time-series fish stocks gypsy-moth conservation depensation extinction weather variabilityJul`Extensive theoretical work on demographic Allee effects has led to the latent assumption that they are ubiquitous in natural populations, yet current empirical support for this phenomenon is sparse. We extended previous single-taxon analyses to evaluate the empirical support for demographic Allee effects in the per capita population growth rate of 1198 natural populations spanning all major taxa. For each population, we quantified the empirical support for five population growth models: no growth (random walk); exponential growth, with and without an Allee effect; and logistic growth, with and without an Allee effect. We used two metrics to quantify empirical support, information-theoretic and Bayesian strength of evidence, and observed top-rank frequency. The Ricker logistic model was both the most supported and most frequently top-ranked model, followed by random walk. Allee models had a combined relative support of 12.0% but were top-ranked in only 1.1% of the time series. Accounting for local climate variation and measurement error caused the loss of top-ranked Allee models, although the latter also increased their relative support. The 13 time series exhibiting Allee models were shorter and less variable than other time series, although only three were non-trending. Time series containing observations at low abundance were not more likely and did not show higher support for Allee effect models. We conclude that there is relatively high potential for demographic Allee effects in these 1198 time series but comparatively few observed cases, perhaps due to the influences of climate and measurement error.://000279563700033KGregory, Stephen D. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Brook, Barry W. Courchamp, Franck 0012-9658EcologyISI:0002795Ǥ600 000 1-ha sites, including uncertainties about fire ant population and spatial dynamics. Such a high level of spatial detail is required to assist surveillance efforts but is difficult to incorporate into common modeling methods because of high computational costs. More than twice as many fire ant nests would have been found in 2008 using predictions made with our method rather than those made with the method currently used in the study region. Our method is suited to considering invasions in which a large area is occupied by the invader at low density. Improved predictions of such invasions can dramatically reduce the area that needs to be searched to find the majority of individuals, assisting containment efforts and potentially making eradication a realistic goal for many invasions previously thought to be ineradicable.://000279047400003pSchmidt, Daniel Spring, Daniel Mac Nally, Ralph Thomson, James R. Brook, Barry W. Cacho, Oscar McKenzie, Michael 1051-0761 Ecol. Appl.ISI:0002790Q://000278427700021LFirth, Ronald S. C. Brook, Barry W. Woinarski, John C. Z. Fordham, Damien A. 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00027842770002110.1016/j.biocon.2010.02.027Q(-Traill, L. W. Bradshaw, C. J. A. Brook, B. W.2010qSatellite telemetry and seasonal movements of Magpie Geese (Anseranas semipalmata) in tropical northern Australia160-164Emu1102XArgos system avian movements capture Kakadu tropical waterbirds migration waterfowl teal!Knowledge of the patterns of movement of tropical waterfowl should assist in long-term conservation of these birds and their wetlands. Data that indicate or suggest the extent of connectivity between populations help us to make decisions, particularly when those populations are threatened by loss and fragmentation of habitat. To date, there has been little research on tropical waterfowl, with most work on this group of birds done in temperate regions. We tracked the seasonal movements of 10 Magpie Geese (Anseranas semipalmata) in tropical northern Australia, predominantly within Kakadu National Park, using satellite telemetry. Movements were multi-directional and the maximum linear distance travelled by an individual was 114 km from the site of release, over 38 weeks of tracking. Movements did appear to be related to seasonal environmental fluctuations, with some birds moving to favoured breeding and foraging sites, but most monitored birds were resident within the national park. No accurate data were obtained beyond 12 months, with most birds apparently losing their telemeters within 6 months. Just 62% of point-location data were accurate to within 1000 m. Our work provides further ecological data on a species threatened by sea-level rise and important to Aboriginal and recreational hunters.://00027802020000://000277690900022pWanger, Thomas C. Iskandar, Djoko T. Motzke, Iris Brook, Barry W. Sodhi, Navjot S. Clough, Yann Tscharntke, Teja 0888-8892Conserv. Biol.ISI:000277690900022 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01434.x://000276028400001#Roberts, Richard G. Brook, Barry W. 0277-3791Quat. Sci. Rev.ISI:00027602840000110.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.011://000274354200007MTraill, Lochran W. Brook, Barry W. Frankham, Richard R. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 0006-3207Biol. Conserv.ISI:00027435420000710.1016/j.biocon.2009.09.001://000273978600002lSodhi, Navjot S. Posa, Mary Rose C. Lee, Tien Ming Bickford, David Koh, Lian Pin Brook, Barry W. Sp. Iss. SI 0960-3115Biodivers. Conserv.ISI:00027397860000210.1007/s10531-009-9607-5://000273978600003.Fordham, Damien A. Brook, Barry W. Sp. Iss. SI 0960-3115Biodivers. Conserv.ISI:00027397860000310.1007/s10531-008-9529-7<://000273783100024#Roberts, Richard G. Brook, Barry W. 0036-8075ScienceISI:00027378310002410.1126/science.1185517 ://000273178700057$Haile, James Froese, Duane G. MacPhee, Ross D. E. Roberts, Richard G. Arnold, Lee J. Reyes, Alberto V. Rasmussen, Morten Nielsen, Rasmus Brook, Barry W. Robinson, Simon Demuro, Martina Gilbert, M. Thomas P. Munch, Kasper Austin, Jeremy J. Cooper, Alan Barnes, Ian Moller, Per Willerslev, Eske 0027-8424Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.ISI:00027317870005710.1073/pnas.0912510106$*Smith, J. G. Griffiths, A. D. Brook, B. W.2010VSurvival estimation in a long-lived monitor lizard: radio-tracking of Varanus mertensi243-247Population Ecology521AIC Cormack-Jolly-Seber Density Known fate Program MARK Varanid iguanas amblyrhynchus-cristatus psammodromus-algirus home-range body-size sceloporus-undulatus population biology uta-stansburiana marked animals life-history growthJansThe population dynamics of varanids (large monitor lizards) is poorly understood. We report on the most detailed study to date of a population of one of Australia's largest semi-aquatic varanids, Varanus mertensi. Survival of V. mertensi was derived from known-fate modelling of radio-tracked individuals over two and a half years. We demonstrate empirically what intuition suggests; that apparent survival probability in long-lived lizards is high over short sampling periods, with body size and gender influencing these estimates. Survival estimation in long-lived species such as varanids clearly requires long-term studies.://0002731661000245Smith, James G. Griffiths, AnRBrook, B. W. Akcakaya, H. R. Keith, D. A. Mace, G. M. Pearson, R. G. Araujo, M. B.2009nIntegrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change723-725Biology Letters56sglobal warming species distribution model population viability analysis extinction risk IUCN Red List distributionsDecClimate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 2529 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.://000271632000002jBrook, Barry W. Akcakaya, H. Resit Keith, David A. Mace, Georgina M. Pearson, Richard G. Araujo, Miguel B. 1744-9561 Biol. Lett.ISI:00027163200000210.1098/rsbl.2009.0480ethony D. Brook, Barry W. 1438-3896 Popul. Ecol.ISI:00027316610002410.1007/s10144-009-0166-0 v98Traill, Lochran W. Bradshaw, Corey J. A. Brook, Barry W. 0158-4197EmuISI:00027802020000910.1071/mu09098 4740000310.1890/09-0838.1 6370003310.1890/09-1128??DClark, F. Brook, B. W. Delean, S. Akçakaya, H.R. Bradshaw, C. J. A.2010?The theta-logistic is unreliable for modelling most census data253-262 Methods in Ecology and Evolution1 10.1111/j.2041-210X. ?@9McMahon, C.R. Brook, B. W. Collier, N. Bradshaw, C. J. A.2010jSpatially explicit spreadsheet modelling for optimizing the efficiency of reducing invasive animal density53-68 Methods in Ecology and Evolution1 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2009.00002.x 2010.00029.xՄ?AAGiam, X. Sodhi, N. S. Brook, B. W. Tan, H.T.W. Bradshaw, C. J. A.2011TRelative need for conservation assessment of vascular plant species among ecoregions55-68Journal of Biogeography38 10.1111/j.13+h?BSodhi, N. S. Wilcove, D.S. Lee, T. M. Sekercioglu, C.H. Subaraj, R. Bernard, H. Yong, D.L. Lim, S.L.H. Prawiradilaga, D.M. Brook, B. W.2010ADeforestation and avian extinction on tropical landbridge islands 1290-1298Conservation Biology24 10.1111/Y;҈?CjTraill, L. W. Brook, B. W.2011oAn aggregative response of the tropical Australian magpie goose (Anseranas semipalmata) to seasonal floodplains 171–180Journal of Tropical EcologyL?D8Traill, L. W. Bradshaw, C. J. A. Delean, S. Brook, B. W.2010qWetland conservation and sustainable use under global change: a tropical Australian case study using magpie geese818-825 Ecography33 10.1111/ ?E[Wanger, T. C. Wielgoss, A.C. Motzke, I. Clough, Y. Brook, B. W. Sodhi, N. S. Tscharntke, T.20115Endemic predators, invasive prey and native diversity690-6946Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences278*?F7Fordham, D. A. Akçakaya, H.R. Araújo, M. Brook, B. W.2012MModelling range shifts for invasive vertebrates in response to climate change86-1085Conserving Wildlife Populations in a Changing ClimatePost, E. Doak, D. Brodie, J. Chicago, ILUniversity of Chicago Press?GRoberts, R. G. Brook, B. W.2010The biggest losers14-17Australasian Science31Xhttp://www.australasianscience.com.au/article/issue-july-august-2010/biggest-losers.htmlm?HBrook, B. W. Lowe, I.2010Nuclear power: yes or no?24-25 Physics World October 2010Ҝ?I%Nicholson, M. Biegler, T. Brook, B.W.2011fHow carbon pricing changes the relative competitiveness of low-carbon baseload generating technologies305-313Energy361 42710.1 0.1016/j.?J Brook, B.W.20111Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines130The Quarterly Review of Biology8610.1086/659900`հD?M8Bradshaw, Cw4?K Brook, B.W.2011"Climate Change in the 21st Century131-132The Quarterly Review of Biology86 energy.2010.10.039 10.1098/rspb.2010.1512017/S0266467410000672 ՜mate Change Hannah, L.NY?L\Brooks, T.M. Brook, B. W. Koh, L. P. Pereira, H. M. Pimm, S.L. Rosenzweig, M.L. Sodhi, N. S.2011!Extinctions: consider all species284Nature47410.1038/474284b 10.1086/659903 j.1600-0587.2009.06205.x j.1523-1739.2010.01495.x 65-2699.2010.02383.x  Island .J.A. Sodhi, N.S. Laurance, W.F. Brook, B.W. 20113Twenty landmark papers in biodiversity conservation2Research in Biodiversity - Models and Applications Pavlinov, I.Rijeka, (?NEBradshaw, C.J.A. Laurance, W.F. Gibson, L. Ehrlich, P.R. Brook, B.W.2011:Homage to an avant-garde conservation leader, Navjot Sodhi 1056-1058Conservation Biology25 10.11?O:Clements, G.R. Bradshaw, C.J.A. Brook, B.W. Laurance, W.F.2011VThe SAFE index: using a threshold population target to measure relative species threat521-525(Frontiers in Ecology and the EnvironmeD?PGibson, L. Lee, T.M. Koh, L.P. Brook, B.W. Gardner, T.A. Barlow, J. Peres, C.A. Bradshaw, C.J.A. Laurance, W.F. Lovejoy, T.E. Sodhi, N.S.2011FPrimary forests are irreplaceable for sustaining tropical biodiversity378-381Nature47p?QLMcMahon, C.R. Brook, B.W. Bowman, D.M.J.S. Williamson, G.J. Bradshaw, C.J.A.2011Fertility partially drives the relative success of two introduced bovines (Bubalus bubalis and Bos javanicus) in the Australian tropics386-396Wildlife ResearX?RJohnson, C.N. Brook, B.W.2011Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia 3748-37546Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences278Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene.?S@Mellin, C. Russell, B.D. Connell, S.D. Brook, B.W. Fordham, D.A.2012KGeographic range determinants of two commercially important marine molluscs133-146Diversity and Distributions18 10.1111/5?T!Haby, N.A. Delean, S. Brook, B.W.2012JSpecialist resources are key to improving small mammal distribution models216-226Austral Ecology37k> ?URWilliamson, G.J. Christidis, L. Norman, J. Brook, B.W. Mackey, B. Bowman, D.M.J.S.2011The use of Australian bioregions as spatial units of analysis to understand potential climate change impacts on songbird diversity354-360Pacific Conservation Biology17?V(Fordham, D.A. Wigley, T.M.L. Brook, B.W.2011AMulti-model climate projections for biodiversity risk assessments 3317-3331Ecological Applications2?WRHarris, J.B.C. Sekercioglu, C.H. Sodhi, N.S. Fordham, D.A. Paton, D.C. Brook, B.W.20116The tropical frontier in avian climate impact research877-882Ibis153 |?XProwse, T.A.A. Brook, B.W.2011@Climate change, variability and adaptation options for Australia168-178Pacific Conservation Biology1 } Small ground-dwelling mammals can have complex ecological relationships with environmental factors that limit the usefulness of coarse data in predictive species distribution models. We investigated the relative importance of available abiotic and biotic, landscape- and quadrat-scale data for predicting the distributions of four small mammals using data at three resolutions: 150 m, 500 m and 1000 m. At 150 m, the inclusion of landscape-scale data to a climate-only model improved the predicted occurrence of the wet heath specialist and woodland generalist, but not the two dense understorey species. Limited improvement was obtained with the inclusion of available quadrat-scale data (possibly because of missing or insufficiently detailed descriptive variables). As the models of best fit were re-applied to lower-resolution environmental data (500 m and 1000 m), the variance explained decreased for the wet heath specialist and two dense understorey species. These trends corresponded with reduced variance explained predominantly by biotic variables or abiotic landscape variables respectively. In contrast, the resolution of environmental data had no effect on the woodland generalist species distribution models, indicating the habitat for this more mobile species was sufficiently represented at the lowest resolution (1000 m). These results highlight the potential value of landscape- and finer-scale variables in modelling the distributions of small mammals. Where such variables are unavailable, higher-resolution climate data could better represent resource availability (indirectly) or suitable microclimates (directly), especially for more vulnerable, above-ground nesting species. We encourage the collection of additional detailed and high-resolution environmental information to facilitate the development of more accurate models of the extent and distribution of small mammals. 10.1111/j.1442-0?Y(Fordham, D.A. Wigley, T.M.L. Brook, B.W.2012yStrengthening forecasts of climate change impacts with multi-model ensemble averaged projections using MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.34-8 Ecography3 5 10.11 .2006.10.008 7-005-0157-7 -006-0018-7 -005-0213-4 071/wr06056 2006.06.034 -006-0011-2 7-007-9006-1 3/022.038.0408 2007.03365.x 006.00428.x 3.2007.01713.x 007.00371.xsW`?ZBradshaw, C.J.A. McMahon, C.R. Miller, P.S. Lacy, R.C. Verant, M.L. Pollack, J.P. Fordham, D.A. Watts, M.J. Prowse, T.A.A. Brook, B.W.2012Novel coupling of individual-based epidemiological and demographic models predicts realistic dynamics of tuberculosis in alien buffalo268-277Journal of Applied Ecology49 10.1 # 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2011.01166.x?[7Brook, B. W. Bradshaw, C.J.A. Traill, L.W. Frankham, R.20118Minimum viable population size: not magic, but necessary619-620Trends in Ecology & Evolutionl?\2Read, J.L. Kovack, K.-J. Brook, B.W. Fordham, D.A.2012cBooming during a bust: asynchronous populations responses of arid zone lizards to climate variables51-61Acta Oecologia40?] Brook, B. W.2011HThe role of nuclear fission energy in mitigating future carbon emissions11-213CEDA Policy Perspective: Australia's Nuclear Option Taylor, N. Melbourne<CEDA – the Committee for Economic Develop d10.101  2610. ment of A? 11/j.1600 H^]Harris, J.B.C. Reid, J.L. Scheffers, B.R. Wanger, T.C. Sodhi, N.S. Fordham, D.A. Brook, B. W.2012]Conserving imperiled species: A comparison of the IUCN Red List and US Endangered Species Act64-72Conservation Letters5 10.1111/ Dnt9T?_;Bradshaw, C.J.A. Clements, G.R. Laurence, W.F. Brook, B. W.2011Better SAFE than sorry487-488(Frontiers in Ecology and the Envi?`Brook, B.W. Bradshaw, C.J.A.2012VStrange bedfellows? Techno-fixes to solve the big conservation issues in southern Asia7-10Biological Conservation15110.1016 0ronment910.ch3810.1071/WR10174 CroatiaInTech978-953-307-794-96ahttp://www.intechopen.com/articles/show/title/twenty-landmark-papers-in-biodiversity-conservation ustralia1Ht?aX Brook, B. W.2011The nuclear fission Flyer404;Plentiful Energy – The Story of the Integral Fast ReactorTill, C.E. 810.1038/nature10425 111/j.136 A Change, Y.I.$Argonne National Laboratory, ChicagoCreateSpac E Press987-159-726-570-6112http://islandpress.org/bookstore/de?b Brook, B. W.2011HFor climate’s sake, nuclear power is not an option, it is a necessity28-31 Swissfuture: Zukunft der Energie Müller, F.Luzern, Switzerland1Schweizerische Vereinigung für Zukunftsforschung ?cl[de Little, S.C. Williamson, G.J. Bowman, D.M.J.S. Whelan, P.I. Brook, B.W. Bradshaw, C.J.A.2012Experimental comparison of aerial larvicides and habitat modification for controlling disease-carrying Aedes vigilax mosquitoes709-717Pest Management Science6810d?dFordham, D.A. Akçakaya, H.R. Araújo, M.B. Elith, J. Keith, D. Pearson, R. Auld, T.D. Mellin, C. Morgan, J.W. Regan, T.J. Tozer, M. Watts, M.J. White, M. Wintle, B. Yates, C. Brook, B.W.2012Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? 1357-1371Global Change Biology1 1890/11.WB.028 10.1890/10017710.1098/rspb.2011.03430?e Brook, B. W.2012TCould nuclear fission energy etc. solve the greenhouse problem? The affirmative case4-8 Energy Policy4210.1016/j|?f=Peyrard, N. Sabbadin, R. Spring, D. Brook, B.W. Mac Nally, R.2013EModel-based adaptive spatial sampling for occurrence map construction29-42Statistics and Computing2310?g6Bradshaw, C.J.A. Cooper, A. Turney, C.S.M. Brook, B.W.2012<Robust estimates of extinction time in the geological record14-19Quaternary Science Reviews3310.1016/=?hhFordham, D.A. Sinclair, R.G. Peacock, D.E. Mutze, G.J. Kovaliski, J. Cassey, P. Capucci, L. Brook, B. W.2012yEuropean rabbit survival and recruitment are linked to epidemiological and environmental conditions in their exotic range945-957Austral Ecology37 10 e Publishing 9781466384606 1016/j.tree.2011.09.006 11/j.1523-1739.2011.01730.x j.1755-263X.2011.00205.x 8 10.11!D?i Brook, B. W.2012<Climate change implications of a large Australian populationQCEDA Policy Perspective: A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and GovernancePincus, Jonathon Hugo, Graeme Melbourne<CEDA – the Committee for Economic Development of Australia110.1890/11-0314.1 j.quascirev.2011.11.021 -0587.2011.07398.x 5-2664.2011.02081.x 11/j.1365 j.1472-4642.2011.00822.x .enpol.2011.11.041?jNRule, S. Brook, B. W. Haberle, S.G. Turney, C.S.M. Kershaw, A.P. Johnson, C.N.2012YThe aftermath of megafaunal extinction: ecosystem transformation in Pleistocene Australia 1483-1486Science33510.1126/science.1214261l?k>Herrando-Pérez, S. Delean, S. Brook, B. W. Bradshaw, C. J. A.2012KDecoupling of component and ensemble density feedbacks in birx?lBradshaw, C. J. A. Brook, B. W.2011dThe Cronus hypothesis: extinction as a necessary and dynamic balance to evolutionary diversification87-102BExtinctions: History, Origins, Causes & Future of Mass Extinctions Schild, R.Cambridge, U.K.Cosmology Science PublishersLhttp://www.amazon.com/Extinctions-History-Origins-Causes-ebook/dp/B005NWHCM4 =ds and mammals 1728-1740Ecology9310.1890/11-1415.1 tailsyy102.html?mPMcMahon, C.R. Isagi, Y. Kaneko, S. Bowman, D.M.J.S. Brook, B.W. Bradshaw, C.J.A.2013RGenetic structure of introduced swamp buffalo subpopulations in tropical Australia46-56Austral Ecology38 10.1111/j.1442-9993.2012.02373.x 99800119505BCI200600532113 .1111/j.1442-9993.2011.02354.x?nsSodhi, N. S. Posa, M. R. C. Peh, K. S-H. Koh, L. P. Soh, M.C.K. Lee, T. M. Lee, J. S. H. Wanger, T. C. Brook, B. W.20126Land use changes imperil South-East Asian biodiversity33-39WLand Use Intensification: Effects on Agriculture, Biodiversity and Ecological Processes*Lindenmayer, D.B. Cunningham, S. Young, A.Collingwood, VicCSIRO Publishing(http9993.2011.02267.x) H?oFFordham, D.A. Watts, M.J. Delean, S. Brook, B. W. Heard, L. Bull, C.M.2012}Managed relocation as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change threats to the persistence of an endangered lizard 2743–2755Global Change Biology18 (?p;Herrando-Pérez, S. Delean, S. Brook, B.W. Bradshaw, C.J.A.20120Density dependence: an ecological Tower of Babel585-603 Oecologia1701?q[Hindell, M.A. Bradshaw, C.J.A. Brook, B.W. Fordham, D.A. Knowles, K. Hull, C. McMahon, C.R.20124Long-term breeding phenology shift in royal penguins 1563-1571Ecology and Evolution21?r;Herrando-Pérez, S. Delean, S. Brook, B.W. Bradshaw, C.J.A.2012VStrength of density feedback in census data increases from slow to fast life histories 1922-1934Ecology and Evolution 10.111199800119505BCI199800119505%7BCI201200095275BCI201200095275 #BCI201200346424BCI2012003464245?sHarris, J.B.C. Fordham, D.A. Mooney, P.A. Pedler, L.P. Araújo, M.B. Paton, D.C. Stead, M.G. Watts, M.J. Akçakaya, H.R. Brook, B.W.2012JManaging the long-term persistence of a rare cockatoo under climate change785-794Journal of Applied Ecology 49 10./j.biocon.2011.10.007k?t#Brook, B. W. Blees, T. Hannum, W.H.2012#Use fast reactors to burn plutonium323Natu re48610.1038/486323b 4://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6808.htm 9780643104075 rrors can arise in some circumstances. For PVA to attain its full potential, it is critical that feedback loops be instituted between software development, experimental evaluations and software refinement.??XGregory, S.D. Brook, B. W. Goossens, B. Ancrenaz, M. Alfred, R. Ambu, L.N. Fordham, D.A.2012Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigatio210.1002/ece3.2981111/j.1365-2664.2012.02163.x?'Delean, S. Brook, B.W. Bradshaw, C.J.A.2013\Ecologically realistic estimates of maximum population growth using informed Bayesian priors34-44 Methods in Ecology and Evolution4 10X?PRussell, B.D. Connell, S.D. Mellin, C. Brook, B. W. Burnell, O. W. Fordham, D.A.2012^Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climatee46554PLoS ONE710.137 .1111/j.2 <ne43846PLoS ONE7910.1371/journal.pone.0043846F?>Delean, S. Bull, C.M. Brook, B. W. Heard, L.M.B. Fordham, D.A.2013RUsing plant distributions to predict the current and future range of a rare lizardDiversity and Distributions10.1111/ddi.12050 0.1007/s00442-012-2347-3F?`Prowse, T.A.A. Johnson, C.N. Lacy, R.C. Bradshaw, C. J. A. Pollak, J.P. Watts, M.J. Brook, B. W.2013cNo need for disease: testing extinction hypotheses for the thylacine using multi-species metamodelsJournal of Animal Ecology10.1111/1365-2656.12029lF? eHaby, N.A. Prowse, T.A.A. Gregory, S.D. Watts, M.J. Delean, S. Fordham, D.A. Foulkes, J. Brook, B. W.2013aScale dependency of metapopulation models used to predict climate change impacts on small mammals Ecography36 10.1111/j.1600-0587.200F?CFrankham, R. Brook, B.W. Bradshaw, C.J.A. Traill, L.W. Spielman, D.2013=50/500 rule and MVPs: response to Jamieson & Allendorf (2012)Trends in Ecolog y & Evolution10.1016/j.tre &1/journal.pone.0046554 e.2013.01.002D?$Clark, F. McMillian, B. Brook, B. W.2012;The OzEA 50% renewables modelling - results and reflections!Solar 2012 Conference ProceedingsMelbourne, Dec. 20126/j.actao.2011.09.006 .1007/s11222-011-9287-3 0.1002/ece3.281 12.07749.x/j.1365-2486.2012.02742.x -2486.2011.02614.x041-210x.2012.00252.x .1002/ps.2317H! IH! TH!_H!jH!uH! H!H!H! H! H!H! H!H!H!H!H! H! H! H! H! %H! 0H!;H!FH! QH! \H! gH! rH!}H!H!H!H!H!H!H! H! H! H! H! H!H! H!H! "H! -H!8H!idreference_typetext_stylesauthoryeartitlepagessecondary_titlevolumenumbernumber_of_volumessecondary_authorplace_publishedpublishersubsidiary_authoreditionkeywordstype_of_workdateabstractlabelurltertiary_titletertiary_authornotesisbncustom_1custom_2custom_3custom_4alternate_titleaccession_numbercall_numbershort_titlecustom_5custom_6sectionoriginal_publicationreprint_editionreviewed_itemauthor_addressimagecaptioncustom_7electronic_resource_numberlink_to_pdftranslated_authortranslated_titlename_of_databasedatabase_providerresearch_noteslanguageaccess_datelast_modified_datePKfKB@W!!refs.MYDPKh=8I/**!refs.frmPKlL