Dr Matthew Welsh

Qualifications

B.A.(Hons), B.Sc.(Hons), Ph.D. in Psychology (Adelaide)

Research Interests

My primary area of interest is in decision making under uncertainty, particularly as it relates to real world problems such as those faced in the petroleum industry. My current focus is on examining the impact, in terms of both accuracy and economic outcomes, of cognitive biases on petroleum decisions and mechanisms for reducing these. These mechanisms include traditional methods such as debiasing through feedback and the use of heuristic decision making methods.

Publications

Submitted Manuscripts

1. Welsh, M. & Begg, S. (2009). Modeling the economic impact of individual and corporate risk attitude. Submitted to SPE Economics & Management.

2. Welsh, M. & Begg, S. (2009). Repeated Judgment Elicitation: Tapping the Wisdom of Crowds in Individuals. Submitted to SPE Economics & Management.

3. Welsh, M. & Navarro, D. (2009). Seeing is Believing: Priors, Trust and Base Rate Neglect. Submitted to Org Beh & Human Dec Processes.

4. Welsh, M., Navarro, D. & Begg, S.H. (2009). Number Preference, Data Precision and Implicit Confidence. Submitted to Org Beh & Human Dec Processes.

5. Welsh, M., Rees, N., Ringwood, H. & Begg, S. (2009). The Planning Fallacy in Oil and Gas Decision Making. Submitted to APPEA Journal.

 

Published papers

1. Welsh, M. & Begg, S. (2009). Repeated judgment elicitation: tapping the wisdom of crowds in individuals. Proceedings of the 85th Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

2. Welsh, M., Lee, M & Begg, S. (2009). Repeated judgments in elicitation tasks: efficacy of the MOLE method. In N.A. Taatgen & H. van Rijn (Eds), Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp1529-1534). Austin,TX:CognitiveScience Society.
   

3. * Bruza, B., Welsh, M. & Navarro, D. (2008). Does Memory Mediate Susceptibility to Cognitive Biases? Implications of the Decision-by-Sampling Theory. In V. Sloutsky, B. Love, & K. McRae (Eds.) Proceedings of the 30th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society.

4. Heywood-Smith, A., Welsh, M. & Begg, S. (2008). Cognitive Errors in Estimation: Does Anchoring Cause Overconfidence? Proceedings of the 84th Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
5. Welsh, M. & Begg, S. (2008). Modeling the Economic Impact of Individual and Corporate Risk Attitude. Proceedings of the 84th Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
6. * Welsh, M., Lee, M. & Begg, S. (2008). More-Or-Less Elicitation (MOLE): Testing a heuristic elicitation method. In V. Sloutsky, B. Love, & K. McRae (Eds.) Proceedings of the 30th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society.
7. Mackie, S., Begg, S., Smith, C. & Welsh, M. (2008). "Real World" Decision-Making in the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry - Prescriptions for Improvement. APPEA Journal, 48(1), pp 329-343.
8. Elliot, T., Welsh, M., Nettelbeck, T. & Mills, V. (2007). Investigating Naturalistic Decision Making in a simulated micro-world: What questions should we ask? Behavior Research Methods, 39(4), pp 901-910.
9. Welsh, M., Begg, S. & Bratvold, R. (2007). Modeling the economic impact of cognitive biases on oil and gas decisions. Proceedings of the 83rd Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Richardson, TX: SPE.
10. * Welsh, M., Begg, S. & Bratvold, R. (2007). Efficacy of bias awareness in debiasing oil and gas judgments. Proceedings of the 29th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society.
11. * Welsh, M., & Navarro, D. (2007). Seeing is believing: priors, trust and base rate neglect. Proceedings of the 29th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society.
12. Mackie, S., Begg, S., Smith, C. & Welsh, M. (2007). Decision type - a key to realizing the potential of decision-making under uncertainty. APPEA Journal, 22(1), pp. 307-317.
13. Chapman, T., Nettelbeck, T., Welsh, M. & Mills, V. (2006). Investigating the construct validity associated with microworld research: a comparison of performance under different management structures across expert and non-expert naturalistic decision-making groups. Australian Journal of Psychology, 58(1), pp. 40-47.
14. Mackie, S., Welsh, M. & Lee, M. (2006). An oil and gas decision-making taxonomy. Proceedings of the 2006 Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Richardson, TX: SPE.
15. Welsh, M., Begg, S. & Bratvold, R. (2006). Correcting common errors in probabilistic evaluations: efficacy of debiasing. Proceedings of the 82nd Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Richardson, TX: SPE.
16. Lee, M., Pincombe, B. & Welsh, M. (2005). An empirical evaluation of models of text document similarity. Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
17. Welsh, M., Bratvold, R. & Begg, S. (2005). Cognitive biases in the petroleum industry: impact and remediation. Proceedings of the 81st Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Richardson, TX: SPE.
18. Lee, M., O'Connor, T. & Welsh, M. (2004). Decision making on the full information secretary problem. Proceedings of the 26th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
19. Welsh, M., Begg, S., Bratvold, R. & Lee, M. (2004). Problems with the elicitation of uncertainty. Proceedings of the 80th Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Richardson, TX: SPE.

*Preprints of papers 3, 6, 10 and 11 are available for download below...

Professional Associations

Member Society of Petroleum Engineers 2004-present

Member Cognitive Science Society 2007-present

Member Association for Psychological Science 2008-present

Files

• 3. Implications of DbS - pp143-bruza.pdf [244.7K] (application/pdf)
• 6. More-Or-Less Elicitation - fp506-welsh.pdf [182.4K] (application/pdf)
• 10. Efficacy of Debiasing - Welsh2007a.pdf [55.8K] (application/pdf)
• 11. Seeing is Believing - Welsh2007b.PDF [281.5K] (application/pdf)

Entry last updated: Monday, 2 Nov 2009