Michael Leonard

Research Interests

My general research interest is in the fields of environmental, statistical and numerical analysis in which my current topic of research is the stochastic simulation of rainfall. In broad terms my research includes aspects of time series/state-space modelling, stochastic optimisation, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains and Bayesian statistics.

Research Project

Rainfall is the driving input for the water dynamics of a catchment. The inability to adequately characterize rainfall variability in space and time is a ubiquitous problem to catchment modellers. As such, it is an important concern to hydrologists, engineers, agriculturalists, economists and ecologists alike. Compounding this problem are the constraints imposed by sparse, noisy and biased measurements of rainfall that are available at differing spatial and/or temporal scales.

In order to characterize rainfall as reallistically as possible, my project seeks to develop a conceptual, stochastic, space-time model using sophisticated modelling techniques. The model is intended to use a hierarchical Bayesian framework for joint calibration to multiple data sources and also to reproduce realistic features such as correlation, anisotropy, intermittency, and advection. Various Australian sites will be used to test the model and for conducting uncertainty analyses.

Supervisor(s)

Professor Martin Lambert - Senior Lecturer, School of Civil,
Environmental & Mining Engineering

Dr Andrew Metcalfe - Department of Applied Mathematics

 

 

 

Entry last updated: Wednesday, 13 Apr 2011