How the Past Helps Predict the Climate Future of Bowhead Whales

Environment Institute Deputy Director Damien Fordham and member Nicholas Freymueller are part of an international team of researchers from the University of Adelaide and the University of Copenhagen who examined and reconstructed 11,700 years of ecological baseline data for bowhead whales.

Using computer models, fossils and whaling records, the team identified and mapped the historical location and size of a suitable summer foraging habibat for this threatened Arctic native species. The findings show that until recently, the habitats remained relatively stable despite past climate fluctuations.

“By using ecological models and paleo-archives to reconstruct pre-whaling distributions of bowhead whales, we were able to develop a much stronger understanding of the habitat preferences of this species that was nearly hunted to extinction,” said Associate Professor Fordham.

Now published in Ecology and Evolution, the study highlights the importance of previous historical perspectives in strengthening the future predictions for the species vulnerability, especially as ocean temperatures continue to increase.

The study predicts that climate change could reduce up to 75 per cent of foraging habitat by the end of the 21st century. In the Sea of Okhotsk, home to one of four bowhead whale populations, this habitat is expected to disappear entirely by 2060. The loss is driven by the breakdown of the whales' close connection to summer sea ice cover.

“Bowhead whales have preferred to forage amongst sea ice for many millennia,” said lead author Nicholas Freymueller.

The study underscores the enduring impacts of commercial whaling, that has spanned four centuries, combined with the ongoing threats of climate change, they mirror the challenges that many other Arctic marine mammal species are likely to face.

To learn and read more, click here to access the full study.

Read the University of Adelaide Media release here.

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