I’m interested in the elicitation of uncertainty: procedures that translate beliefs into a probability distribution. Human beings aren’t rational information processors, so different elicitation methods can produce very different estimates – even though they actually ask about the same outcome! My research aims to offer better insight into the cognitive processes underlying both the formation and the conversion of knowledge into a probability distribution; with the ultimate goal of uncovering elicitation methods that help mitigate the impact of harmful decision-making biases (e.g., overconfidence).
Bruza, B., Welsh, M. B., Navarro, D. J. & Begg, S. H. (2011). Does anchoring cause overconfidence only in experts? In L. Carlson, C. Hölscher, & T. Shipley (Eds.), Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 1947-1952). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
Bruza, B., Welsh, M. B., Navarro, D. J. & Begg, S. H. (2010). In what sense is P(A|B) P(B) = P(A,B)? The relationship between distributional format and subjective probability estimates In S. Ohlsson & R. Catrambone (Eds.), Proceedings of the 32nd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 1792-1797). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
Bruza, B., Welsh, M. B. & Navarro, D. J. (2008). Does memory mediate susceptibility to cognitive biases? Implications of the decision-by-sampling theory. In V. Sloutsky, B. Love, & K. McRae (Eds.), Proceedings of the 30th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 1498-1503). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
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Entry last updated: Thursday, 31 Oct 2013