Dr Matthew Welsh
|Position||Senior Research Fellow|
|Org Unit||Australian School of Petroleum|
|Telephone||+61 8 8313 8024|
Santos Petroleum Engineering
B.A.(Hons) - Class 2A in Philosophy
B.Sc.(Hons) - 1st Class in Psychology
Grad. Cert. Ed. (Higher)
Ph.D. in Psychology (Adelaide)
I am a psychological scientist working in the Australian School of Petroleum's Centre for Improved Business Performance (CIBP), which is part of the University's Institute for Mineral and Energy Resources (IMER). Our group, led by Prof. Steve Begg, is funded by companies under a "research club" structure, whereby members join to gain access to all research undertaken by the group.
My primary area of research is in decision making under uncertainty, particularly as it relates to real world problems such as those faced in the petroleum industry. My current focus is on examining the impact, in terms of both accuracy and economic outcomes, of cognitive biases on petroleum decisions and mechanisms for reducing these. These mechanisms include traditional methods such as debiasing through feedback and the use of heuristic decision making methods.
This had led to me consider the role that elicitation plays in the shaping the data provided by both expert and novice decision makers. That is, how should we ask questions in order to translate a person's beliefs into useable, numerical formats while avoiding biases known to affect judgements made under uncertainty.
This work has led to my writing a book on how bias affects the conduct and communication of science - Bias in Science and Communication: A Field Guide - published through IOP Press.
I have also reviewed papers for Psychological Science, Cognitive Science, the Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, AAPG Bulletin, SPE Economics and Management, the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Management Research Review and the Journal of Mathematical Psychology.
For a list of my publications, please visit my
Researcher Profile - using the link above.
Member Cognitive Science Society 2007-present
Member Association for Psychological Science 2009-present
Member Society of Petroleum Engineers 2004-2011
Member American Geophysical Union 2015-2016
- Reducing overconfidence in forecasting - pp400.pdf [122.7K] (application/pdf)
- IndDiff in Base Rate Neglect - ID_BRN.pdf [647.4K] (application/pdf)
- Implications of DbS - pp143-bruza.pdf [244.7K] (application/pdf)
- More-Or-Less Elicitation - fp506-welsh.pdf [182.4K] (application/pdf)
- Efficacy of Debiasing - Welsh2007a.pdf [55.8K] (application/pdf)
- Seeing is Believing - Welsh2007b.PDF [281.5K] (application/pdf)
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Entry last updated: Friday, 24 Aug 2018
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